Public understanding of local tornado characteristics and perceived protection from land-surface features in Tennessee, USA

Abstract

Misunderstandings about the influence of land-surface features on tornado frequency and other tornado-related misconceptions may affect how people prepare for and behave during hazardous weather events. This research uses a phone survey ( n = 1804) to assess how participants in three regions of Tennessee perceive their local tornado characteristics ( i.e ., direction of travel, seasonality, and diurnal timing) and their belief in protection from land-surface features ( i.e ., hills, water bodies, and buildings). Region of residence influences most beliefs in local tornado characteristics, and demographic characteristics, specifically age and gender, also have some influence. Residents in hilly East Tennessee are more likely to believe they are protected by hills and underestimate the proportion of nocturnal tornadoes, while residents in West Tennessee are more likely to believe they are protected by water bodies, perhaps because of proximity to the Mississippi River. Outside of the typical severe-weather season, participants were uncertain of when tornadoes were likely to occur; specifically, they did not recognize their local wintertime tornado activity. Because public perceptions are related to local features, local organizations and personnel, for example National Weather Service offices and broadcast meteorologists, may be most helpful in dispelling these misconceptions.

Tornado Radar Images and Path Directions: An Assessment of Public Knowledge in the Southeastern United States

“…People from counties with higher tornado activity and more tornado experiences generally demonstrate greater background knowledge about their true (climatological) tornado risk (Allan et al 2020). This is also supported by Ellis et al (2018), who found that previous tornado experience was associated with correct estimation or overestimation of climatological tornado risk, although Tennessee residents generally underestimated their tornado risk especially after accounting for missed tornadoes. Additional research has shown that college students from high-risk tornado counties significantly overestimated their actual tornado risk when compared to students from less active tornado counties (Senkbeil et al 2019).…”

“…W e continue to experience high fatalities from tornadic events despite improvements in forecasting technology, predictive methods, and increased cooperation between meteorologists and social scientists about risk communication products and messaging. The intensity of tornado outbreaks and property destruction is likely to continue an increasing trend (Brooks et al 2014;Elsner et al 2014;Tippett et al 2016;Elsner et al 2019;Moore 2021). Therefore, the importance of generating accurate forecasts and communicating those forecast details in ways that incentivize people to plan and take protective action is becoming increasingly critical to safeguard lives and property as tornado risk is a greater concern than ever.…”

“…Additional research has shown that college students from high-risk tornado counties significantly overestimated their actual tornado risk when compared to students from less active tornado counties (Senkbeil et al 2019). Furthermore, incorrect perceptions and underestimation about winter tornado risk and nocturnal tornado risk were also common in the southeastern United States (Ellis et al 2019;Broomell et al 2020). Additionally, residents of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama frequently believed tornado myths about protection from hills, topography, water bodies, or human-altered land features (Klockow et al 2014;Ellis et al 2019).…”

The Influence of Tornado Activity, Impact, Memory, and Sentiment on Tornado Perception Accuracy among College Students

“…However, if a hazard occurred and did not cause any negative consequences, it may lessen one's perception of risk [28]. Local geography also affects risk perception; for example, people may feel protected from tornadoes because of nearby hills or rivers [29,30]. Socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, ethnicity, or education, were significantly related to perception of natural hazard risk in some studies, but not others, and their role continues to be debated [28].…”

“…Socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, ethnicity, or education, were significantly related to perception of natural hazard risk in some studies, but not others, and their role continues to be debated [28]. Specific to tornadoes, for example, Senkbeil et al [31] found that risk perception and preparedness varied by race/ethnicity, while Ellis et al [30] found that socioeconomic characteristics had no notable influence on climatological risk perception.…”