Pull Factors and Migration Preferences: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

Which national characteristics do voluntary migrants prioritize when considering destinations? Although this question is salient for policymakers, extant studies face challenges when seeking to identify how various pull factors shape destination preferences. Surveys of migrants are typically conducted after they arrive, introducing selection bias and post-hoc reasoning. Moreover, desirable national characteristics tend to co-vary, implying that observed relationships with migration flows may be confounded. In this article, we identify the destination preferences of prospective migrants by drawing on a sample of 8,500 respondents from five sending states across the Middle East and North Africa. Prospective migrants completed a series of conjoint survey tasks in which they chose between two destinations with randomly varying characteristics. The results reveal a clear hierarchy of preferences, with prospective migrants placing the greatest priority on liberal democratic governance and employment prospects. The availability of welfare benefits acted as a secondary consideration, while geographic distance and co-ethnic stock did not strongly predict initial destination preferences. While the rank order of these considerations remains consistent across national samples, our results suggest that respondents from different economic and political backgrounds vary in how they navigate potential tradeoffs between national characteristics. These findings address post-arrival bias in extant studies by revealing prospective migrants’ preferences before they interact with the opportunity structures that facilitate and restrict entry into desirable destinations.

What Drives Migration to Europe? Survey Experimental Evidence from Lebanon

“…Similar effect sizes are also presented inFerwerda and Gest (2020).9 In TableA6, we confirm that the results are unchanged when using an ordered logit model.…”

A gravity model analysis of international migration from BRIC to OECD countries using Poisson Pseudo-maximum likelihood Approach

“…The results indicate to accept the first proposition of study and H 1 , H 2 , H 3 and H 4 which states that there is significant association is present between gravity variables of source and destination. Gravity model is widely used to study migration determinants ( Kim and Cohen, 2010 ; Dharmadasa and Herath 2020 ; Ferwerda and Gest 2020 ). The results indicate that as the population of the source countries grow the international migration will grow too from BRIC.…”

The Experience of European Researchers in China: A Comparative Capital Advantage Perspective

“…For instance, push factors in European countries are dependent on labor market conditions (unavailability of adequate job openings, lack of viable promotion options, disappointing work conditions) in combination with individual factors such as personal situation, age, or family status (Lee & Kuzhabekova, 2017 ). Pull factors refer to the elements attracting migrants into a receiving country (Ferwerda & Gest, 2020 ) and can be related to the prospect of better jobs or economic opportunities, or the country’s immigration policies aimed at attracting skilled migrants (Hayes & Pérez-Gañán, 2017 ; Van Der Wende, 2015 ).…”