Putting the poorly documented 1998 GLOF disaster in Shakhimardan River valley (Alay Range, Kyrgyzstan/Uzbekistan) into perspective

Petrakov, Dmitry; Chernomorets, Sergey; Viskhadzhieva, Karina Saidovna; Докукин, М.Д.; Savernyuk, Elena; Petrov, Maxim; Erokhin, Sergey; Tutubalina, Olga; Glazyrin, Gleb E.; Shpuntova, Alyona M.; Stoffel, Markus

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138287

Cited by 18 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…There is an urgent need to generate glacial lake inventories that include small lakes by using high spatial resolution satellite imagery (Bhambri et al 2016). Moreover, the hydrological connectivity of several lakes may trigger the outburst of other lakes due to cascading effects (Erokhin et al 2018;Kirschbaum et al 2019;Petrakov et al 2020). A sophisticated monitoring concept should also integrate satellite data with high temporal resolution to indicate the development of short-lived lakes on glaciers or on debris landforms with buried ice (Narama et al 2012(Narama et al , 2018 or fast glacial lake growth (Petrakov et al 2020) as also evident in the case of Gya.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tunneling processes can be assumed as a trigger of sudden water releases in various events (Erokhin et al 2018;Ikeda et al 2016;Narama et al 2018). Furthermore, glacial lakes with an underground drainage are more susceptible to outburst floods than lakes with a stable surface drainage, because intra-moraine channels can be blocked by thermokarst processes (Narama et al 2018), so that the blockage can lead to overflow and subsequent lake outburst through erosion and breach formation (Erokhin et al 2018;Petrakov et al 2012Petrakov et al , 2020. The ice tunnel can be closed and the lake can be refilled again; thus, several floods can occur from the same glacial lake (Narama et al 2018) or indicated by the lake level changes in Gya.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Whether these lake level rises are caused by a blockage of the tunnel or by an increase in melt water due to a massive heatwave as reported by the villagers of Gya in 2014 or high precipitation as observed in 2019 remains unclear. Both abrupt rise of temperature and torrential rainfall may act as triggering factors for GLOFs (Din et al 2014;Erokhin et al 2018;Petrakov et al 2020). The widening of the tunnel system within the moraines and melting of buried ice may increase the future risk of GLOFs (Richardson and Reynolds 2000;Sakai 2012;Westoby et al 2014;Worni et al 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cryosphere hazards in Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for risk assessment

et al. 2020

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This article attempts to reconstruct the causes and consequences of the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event in Gya, Ladakh. We analyse the evolution of the Gya glacial lake using a high temporal and high spatial resolution remote sensing approach. In order to frame the case study in a larger picture, we produce a comprehensive inventory of glacial lakes for the entire Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Changes in the extent and number of glacial lakes have been detected for the years 1969, 1993, 2000/02 and 2018 in order to assess the potential risk of future GLOFs in the region. The remote sensing approach was supported by field surveys between 2014 and 2019. The case study of the Gya GLOF illustrates the problem of potentially hazardous lakes being overlooked in inventories. The broader analysis of the Ladakh region and in-depth analysis of one GLOF lead us to propose an integrated approach for detecting undocumented GLOFs. This article demonstrates the necessity for using multiple methods to ensure robustness of risk assessment. The improved understanding can lead to a more accurate evaluation of exposure to cryosphere hazards and identification of alternative mechanisms and spatial patterns of GLOFs in the Himalaya.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cryosphere hazards in Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for risk assessment

et al. 2020

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“…For some cases of GLOF-debris flow process chains the entrainment ratio of the total volume mobilized to the initial volume was significantly higher. For example, the debris flow that occurred in Kichi Almaty catchment in the Northern Tian Shan on 15 July 1973 was initiated by a GLOF with a total volume of just 225 x 10³ m³, yet the total volume of the debris flow was 3800 x 10³ m³ (Petrakov et al, 2020;Yafyazova, 2007).…”

Section: Volumementioning

confidence: 99%

Geomorphic process chains in high-mountain regions - A review and classification approach for natural hazards assessment

Mani

Allen

Evans

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Human populations and infrastructure in high mountain regions are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, the frequency, magnitude, and location of which are extremely sensitive to climate change. In cases where several hazards can occur simultaneously or where the occurrence of one event will change the disposition of another, assessments need to account for complex process chains. While process chains are widely recognized as a major threat, no systematic analysis has been undertaken. We therefore assemble a broad set of process chain events from across the globe to establish new understanding on the factors that directly trigger or alter the disposition for subsequent events in the chain. Based on this new understanding, we derive a novel classification scheme and parameters to aid natural hazard assessment. Most process chains in high mountains are commonly associated with glacier retreat or permafrost degradation. Regional differences exist in the nature and rate of sequencing-some process chains are almost instantaneous, while other linkages are delayed. Process chains involving rapid sequences are difficult to predict or mitigate, and impacts are often devastating. We demonstrate that process chains are initialized most frequently as threshold failures, being the result of gradual landscape weakening and not due to the occurrence of a distinct trigger. The co-occurrence of fluvial processes or activation of sediment deposition areas increases the reach of process chains. Climate change is therefore expected to increase the reach of events in the future, as glacial environments transform into sediment-rich paraglacial and fluvial landscapes.

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“…In contrast to the number and size of glacier lakes, trends in the number of glacier-related floods are not well known for recent decades [14,15], although a number of phases of increased and decreased flood activity have been documented for individual glaciers in North America and Greenland [16,17]. Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occur in various mountain regions in the world, including the Himalayas [18][19][20][21][22], Tien Shan [23][24][25][26], the Andes [27][28][29], the Alps [30], North American Cordillera [31] and the Caucasus [32][33][34][35][36]. An increasing GLOF activity in the catchments with large glaciers is projected for the end of the 21st century [37].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of Extreme Hydrological Events in the Baksan River Basin, the Central Caucasus, Russia

et al. 2021

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High mountain areas are prone to extreme hydrological events, and their study is especially important in the context of ongoing intensive deglaciation. In this research, a model “chain” consisting of a hydrodynamic model and a runoff formation model is adopted to simulate a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) from Bashkara Lake (the Central Caucasus, Russia) and its effect on downstream. In addition to an actual GLOF event that occurred on 1 September 2017 and led to casualties and significant destruction in the Adylsu and Baksan Rivers valleys, possible scenarios for the re-outburst of the lake are considered. The hydrographs of the outburst and the downstream movement of the flood wave along the Adylsu River valley are estimated using STREAM_2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The water discharges in the entire river network of the Baksan River are assessed using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) runoff formation model. The output flood hydrograph from the hydrodynamic model is set as additional input into the Baksan River runoff formation model in the upper reaches of the Adylsu River. As a result of the simulations, estimates for the contribution of GLOFs and precipitation to an increase in peak discharge along the Baksan River were obtained. The actual outburst flood contributed 45% and precipitation 30% to the peak flow in the Baksan River at the mouth of the Adylsu River (10 km from the outburst site). In Tyrnyauz (40 km from the outburst site), the contributions of the outburst flood and precipitation were equal and, in Zayukovo (70 km from the outburst site), the outburst flood contributed only 20% to the peak flow, whereas precipitation contributed 44%. Similar calculations were made for future potential re-outburst flood, taking into account climatic changes with an increase in air temperatures of 2 °C, an increase in precipitation of 10% in winter and a decrease of 10% in summer. The maximum discharge of the re-outburst flood in the Adylsu River mouth, according to model estimations, will be approximately three times less than the discharge of the actual outburst on 1 September 2017 and can contribute up to 18% of the peak discharge in the Baksan River at the confluence.

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Putting the poorly documented 1998 GLOF disaster in Shakhimardan River valley (Alay Range, Kyrgyzstan/Uzbekistan) into perspective

Cited by 18 publications

References 45 publications

Cryosphere hazards in Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for risk assessment

Cryosphere hazards in Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for risk assessment

Geomorphic process chains in high-mountain regions - A review and classification approach for natural hazards assessment

Modeling of Extreme Hydrological Events in the Baksan River Basin, the Central Caucasus, Russia

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