Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

Toro, Gabriel R.; Niedoroda, Alan W.; Reed, C.W.; Divoky, David

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.09.005

Cited by 42 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…As pointed out by Toro et al (2010a), this method reduces the number of parameter combinations needed in multidimensional quadratures, leading to a drastically reduced number of synthetic storm combinations. This method was described by Agbley (2009) and is modified by us to make it more transportable and accurate.…”

Section: Optimal Storm Ensemble Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Condon

Sheng

2011

Nat Hazards

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Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation.

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Section: Optimal Storm Ensemble Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Condon

Sheng

2011

Nat Hazards

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“…These methods involve the generation of a large number of synthetic cyclones that are in statistical agreement with observations. Several approaches have been proposed so far, such as JPM-OS (Joint Probability Methods with Optimal Sampling, e.g., Resio, 2007;Toro et al, 2010) or the statistical-deterministic model of Emanuel et al (2006). They have been used successfully for storm surge assessment at local (Lin et al, 2010(Lin et al, , 2012, regional (Harper et al, 2009;Niedoroda et al, 2010) or even continental (Haigh et al, 2014) scales.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Krien¹,

Dudon²,

Roger³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge -up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

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“…FIRMs), and the reports are currently out for public comment (http://www.region2coastal.com/). The study used a computer modeling approach for its assessment (e.g., Niedoroda et al, 2010;Toro et al, 2010). Historical storm and sea level data from 1938 to 2009 were used to help define a regional "climatology" of storms that cause coastal flooding, comprising 159 synthetic tropical cyclones (TCs) and 30 historical extratropical cyclones (ETCs).…”

Section: C8 Future Work: Combined Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They are also designed to include small variations on these historical events that are possible with shifts to the tide phase at storm landfall, or variations in TC variables such as wind speed or storm track (FEMA, 2014c;Toro et al, 2010).…”

Section: C8 Future Work: Combined Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Appendix II: NPCC 2015 Technical Details

2015

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

Cited by 42 publications

References 12 publications

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

Appendix II: NPCC 2015 Technical Details

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