Degradation analysis is used to analyze the useful lifetimes of systems, their failure rates, and various other system parameters like mean time to failure (MTTF), mean time between failures (MTBF), and the system failure rate (SFR). In many systems, certain possible parallel paths of execution that have greater chances of success are preferred over others. Thus we introduce here the concept of probabilistic parallel choice. We use binary and n-ary probabilistic choice operators in describing the selections of parallel paths. These binary and n-ary probabilistic choice operators are considered so as to represent the complete system (described as a series-parallel system) in terms of the probabilities of selection of parallel paths and their relevant parameters. Our approach allows us to derive new and generalized formulae for system parameters like MTTF, MTBF, and SFR. We use a generalized exponential distribution, allowing distinct installation times for individual components, and use this model to derive expressions for such system parameters.Keywords: Reliability block diagram (RBD); reliability time estimation (RTE); mean time to failure (MTTF); mean time between failures (MTBF); mean time to repair (MTTR); system failure rate (SFR); probability density function (pdf); probabilistic choice; nonprobabilistic choice.
NotationX i : Component with index i P (X i ) : Probability that component X i works successfully P δ (X i ) : Probability that component X i fails 1450012-1 Int. J. Rel. Qual. Saf. Eng. 2014.21. Downloaded from www.worldscientific.com by RUTGERS UNIVERSITY on 04/05/15. For personal use only. A. Saxena & S. RaoR k : Parallel path k P (R k ) : Probability that parallel path R k works successfully P δ (R k ) : Probability that parallel path R k fails S : A complete system P (S, t ≥ T ) : Probability of success of system S for t ≥ T P δ (S, t ≥ T ) : Probability of failure of system S for t ≥ T ⊕ : Nonprobabilistic choice operator ⊗ : Sequential choice operator ψ : Probabilistic choice operator (binary case) ψ k : kth Probabilistic choice operator (n-ary case) ψ k : Probability with which parallel path R k is chosen t 0i : Installation time of component X i t ∞ : Time at which probability of successful working of a system is almost zero ρ : Threshold value of probability of success of system for system to be reliable in determination of mean time to failure λ i : Failure rate of component X i which determines how fast the probability of success decays with time λ eq : The equivalent system failure rate given components with λ i individual failure rates