Quantification Assessment of Winter Wheat Sensitivity under Different Drought Scenarios during Growth

Abstract

To effectively reveal the disaster-causing mechanism between water stress and yield loss under different drought combinations during multiple growth periods of winter wheat, based on biennial wheat drought experiments, a crop growth analysis method was used to quantitatively identify and assess wheat yield loss sensitivity. The results showed that there was a significant negative correlation between the total dry matter relative growth rate (RGR) of wheat and the daily average degree of drought stress. The average determination coefficients of logarithmic fitting for 2017 and 2018 were 0.7935 and 0.7683, respectively. Wheat dry matter accumulation differed under the different drought combination scenarios. The yield loss sensitivity response relationship between the decrease in the RGR of wheat dry matter (relative to no drought stress) and the daily average degree of drought stress could be quantitatively identified by an S-shaped curve, and the 2017 and 2018 average coefficients of determination R2 were 0.859 and 0.849, respectively. Mild drought stress at the tillering stage stimulates adaptability and has little effect on yield. The soil water content (SWC) can be controlled to 65–75% of the field water holding capacity; the SWC at the jointing and booting stage can be controlled to be higher than the field water holding capacity of 55%. The SWC was maintained at a level higher than 75% of the field water holding capacity during the heading and flowering stages and the grain-filling and milky stages to achieve a harmonization of yields and water savings. In addition, during the production process, continuous severe drought during the jointing and booting stage and the heading and flowering stage should be avoided. This study elucidates the response relationship between drought intensity and drought-induced losses from the perspective of physical genesis, provides effective irrigation guidance for regional wheat planting, lays the foundation for the construction of quantitative agricultural drought loss risk curves, and provides technical support for predicting the trend of yield losses in wheat under different drought stresses.