Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process

Meißner, Philip; Brands, Christian; Wulf, Torsten

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.08.002

Cited by 25 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…This implies that there is a period between the first weak signal and the first strong signal (H.I. Ansoff, 1975) (Mendonça, Cardoso, & Caraça, 2012).…”

Section: Post-ansoff Interpretations Of the Weak Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their analysis guarantees the Organization's real-time alignment between decision-making and the evolution of external issues. However, weak signals are not so much evidence of change as they are possible windows to the future, vehicles for stimulating plural vision (Miller, Rossel, & Jorgensen, 2012).…”

Section: Post-ansoff Interpretations Of the Weak Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, in a rather constructivist posture, Weak Signals are not seen as entities in themselves but as by-products of our activities. Thus, weak signals consist not only of the concepts, techniques, and organization needed to track and make sense of change but also of the meaning-creating frameworks that shape the relevance, effectiveness, and impact of what is observed on the dayto-day analysis and management (Miller et al, 2012). (Hiltunen, 2008) initiated a new starting point in the definition of weak signals by placing a new concept called "future sign", which is made up of three dimensions: the signal, the question, and the interpretation.…”

Section: Post-ansoff Interpretations Of the Weak Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The environment is continually a source of massive and hazardous data for observers, much of this data would be meaningless for the activity and survival of an organization. Being the background mass of parasitic signs and irrelevant facts pointing in inconsistent directions, noise, therefore, sits, on the surface, indistinguishable from weak signals and creates unwanted interference imposing a cost on the company that practices peripheral Scanning (Mendonça et al, 2012). It is difficult to distinguish between noise and weak signals since there is no practical formula for distinguishing and assessing intuition (Day & Schoemaker, 2005).…”

Section: Noisementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, the phenomena that generate weak signals are the most common. Weak signals are therefore the working material based on which relevant implications can be deduced (Mendonça et al, 2012). Also, there is generally a low probability that Wild cards will occur but if they do occur their impact is very high as they tend to change fundamentals and create new trajectories which can then create a new basis for additional challenges and opportunities that most stakeholders may not have considered or prepared before (Saritas & Smith, 2011).…”

Section: Wild Cardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Weak Signals Interpretation to prevent strategic surprises: a literature review

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2020

Proceedings of ‏The 4th International Conference on Business, Management and Economics

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Owing to the Covid-19 pandemic, most companies have suffered tremendous losses while others were able to find some opportunities by adapting their activities to this particular context marked by strong uncertainty. Igor Ansoff's theory of weak signals offers a possible theoretical framework for preventing in advance such strategic surprises and ways to gradually prepare for them. Purpose: The aim is to present a theoretical panorama on the role and the limits of weak signals in the prevention of strategic surprises according to the interpretations proposed by the researchers who have treated this subject. Approach: In the context of this paper, we will examine this theory by reviewing the literature from Ansoff's founding text. Findings: Ansoff's theory and its positivist developments should be taken in moderation since there are discontinuities that arrive without being announced by weak signals such as wild cards. Also, the influence of the real-life and experience of the observer is not without effects on how he interprets the weak signals detected in the periphery. Originality: The added value of this paper lies in its synthetic character serving to highlight the scientific debate around the concept of weak signals.

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“…This implies that there is a period between the first weak signal and the first strong signal (H.I. Ansoff, 1975) (Mendonça, Cardoso, & Caraça, 2012).…”

Section: Post-ansoff Interpretations Of the Weak Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Post-ansoff Interpretations Of the Weak Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Post-ansoff Interpretations Of the Weak Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Noisementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Wild Cardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Weak Signals Interpretation to prevent strategic surprises: a literature review

Boutout¹

2020

Proceedings of ‏The 4th International Conference on Business, Management and Economics

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2018

Building Performance Analysis

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Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management

Jashari

Tiberius

Dabić

2021

Futures & Foresight Science

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Business and management research on scenarios has been highly productive over the decades but led to a complex literature that is hard to oversee. To organize the field and identify distinguishable research clusters, we conducted a co‐citation analysis focusing on the long‐term history of research. We compare our findings with a previously published bibliographic coupling, focusing on the more recent research to trace its development over time. Our study revealed six research clusters: (1) Planning the Future with Scenarios, (2) Scenario Planning in Strategic Management, (3) Reinforcing the Scenario Technique, (4) Integration of Scenario Planning and MCDA, (5) Combination of Different Methods, and (6) Decision‐making through Stochastic Programming, whereas the bibliographic coupling generated 11 clusters. Some former research clusters were divided into separate new clusters, while others were united. Additionally, completely new clusters emerged. Future research on scenarios is expected (1) to further differentiate into strategy and operations, (2) to be based on “behavioral futures” or “behavioral foresight” as a new research stream, (3) to advance the scenario technique methodically and include new specific scenario generation methods, and (4) to put forth new application areas.

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Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process

Cited by 25 publications

References 31 publications

Weak Signals Interpretation to prevent strategic surprises: a literature review

Weak Signals Interpretation to prevent strategic surprises: a literature review

References

Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management

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