Quantifying 3D Land Seismic Reliability and Value

Abstract

TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractSeismic data provide important information for guiding reservoir development. Improvements in data quality hold the promise of improving performance even further. Yet, the value of these data, and decision making capability, must exceed its cost. Previous work has demonstrated value of information (VOI) methods to quantify the value of seismic data. In these examples, seismic accuracy is obtained via expert assessment instead of being based on geophysical quantities. In addition, the modeled seismic information is not representative of a quantity that would be observed in a true processed seismic image. Here we apply a more general VOI model that includes multiple targets, budgetary constraints, and, importantly, quantitative models relating post-stack seismic amplitudes and AVO parameters to the quantities of interest for reservoir characterization, such as porosity and reservoir thickness. In addition, by including estimated changes in data accuracy related to signal-to-noise ratio, the decision model can provide objective estimates of the ability of the seismic data to provide reliable measurements and its value. We demonstrate this methodology within the context of a west Texas 3D land survey. This example demonstrates that seismic information can be quite valuable and improvements in seismic technology can create significant value for E&P companies.

The Value of Information in Portfolio Problems with Dependent Projects

“…There has been significant interest in wildlife conservation (Polasky and Solow 2001, Williams et al 2011), mining (Phillips et al 2009, Eidsvik and Ellefmo 2013, fishing (Hansen and Jones 2008), and forestry (Kangas 2010), to name a few areas. Perhaps the most prolific work using spatial models has been conducted for oil exploration; see, e.g., overview papers by Bickel et al (2008) and Bratvold et al (2009). The literature in this domain has also studied sequential information gathering for exploration; see, e.g., Bickel and Smith (2006) and Martinelli et al (2013).…”

Value of Information in the Oil and Gas Industry: Past, Present, and Future

“…Only two papers (Branco et al 2005;Bickel et al 2006) attempt to go beyond expert assessments and tie the likelihood function to some form of model (e.g., geophysical). Five papers illustrate perfect information, which does not require any additional assessment.…”

“…The likelihood function can also be assessed through models as discussed in Bickel et al (2006) and Branco et al (2005). More work is required to develop suitable models for many information-gathering activities.…”

Model‐based uncertainty quantification and seismic information value

“…In the current study, we assume both reservoir properties and seismic data are spatially uncorrelated and that the joint distribution f(θ i ,ω i ) is multivariate normal, which greatly simplifies the Bayesian calculations. See Bickel et al (2006) for more detail. We assume NPV(φ,h,S w ) = 35.7 φ h…”

“…Houck (2004) presented model-based calculations to quantify the improvement in seismic images resulting from a hypothetical improved streamer positioning system determined the economic value of improved data. Bickel et al (2006) quantify the reliability and value of seismic information in the context of a 3D land example.…”