Quantifying Convective Weather Impacts to Airspace Capacity: Framework and Preliminary Results

Terminal airspace is the convergence area of air traffic flow, which is the bottleneck of air traffic management. With the rapid growth of air traffic volume, the impact of convective weather on flight operations is becoming more and more serious. To change the conditions and improve the utilization of terminal area airspace, a convective weather terminal area capacity (CWTAC) model is developed to quantify the effect of convective weather on the capacity of the terminal area in this paper. The airspace of the terminal area is divided into major airspace, minor airspace and no-impact airspace according to the distribution of the air traffic flow. Under convective weather, their permeabilities are calculated and used as input features, and the actual availability rate is set to label. Three machine learning algorithms, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN), are used to predict the availability rate. Then, the terminal airspace capacity under convective weather can be calculated. The historical operation data of the Guangzhou terminal area and the Wuhan terminal area are taken to test machine learning algorithms and verify the CWTAC model. It shows that all three machine learning algorithms are practical, and ANN is the best one based on mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The predicted capacity of the CWTAC model accords well with the actual flight number in the terminal airspace under convective weather. The reasons why they are not entirely consistent are also analyzed.

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Prediction of Arrival Flight Operation Strategies under Convective Weather Based on Trajectory Clustering

Wang

Chu

et al. 2022

Aerospace

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An airport’s terminal area is the bottleneck of the air transport system. Convective weather can seriously affect the normal flight status of arrival and departure flights. At present, pilots take different flight operation strategies to avoid convective weather based on onboard radar, visual information, adverse weather experience, etc. This paper studies trajectory clustering based on the OPTICS algorithm to obtain the arrival of typical flight routes in the terminal area. Based on weather information of the planned typical flight route and flight plan information, Random Forest (RF), K-nearest Neighbor KNN (KNN), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) algorithms were used for training and establishing the Arrival Flight Operation Strategy Prediction Model (AFOSPM). In this paper, case studies of historical arrival flights in the Guangzhou (ZGGG) and Wuhan (ZHHH) terminal area were carried out. The results show that trajectory clustering results based on the OPTICS algorithm can more accurately reflect the regular flight routes of arrival flights in a terminal area. Compared to KNN and SVM, the prediction accuracy of AFOSPM based on RF is better, reaching more than 88%. On this basis, six features—including 90% VIL, weather coverage, weather duration, planned route, max VIL, and planned Arrival Gate (AF)—were used as the input features for AFOSPM, which can effectively predict various arrival flight operation strategies. For the most frequently used arrival flight operation strategies under convective weather conditions—radar guidance, AF changing, and diversion strategy—the prediction accuracy of the ZGGG and ZHHH terminal areas can exceed 95%, 85%, and 80%, respectively.

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Quantifying Convective Weather Impacts to Airspace Capacity: Framework and Preliminary Results

Cited by 3 publications

References 11 publications

Evaluating the Influence of Weather Prediction Accuracy on Aircraft Performance Estimation

Evaluating the Influence of Weather Prediction Accuracy on Aircraft Performance Estimation

Predicting the Airspace Capacity of Terminal Area under Convective Weather Using Machine Learning

Prediction of Arrival Flight Operation Strategies under Convective Weather Based on Trajectory Clustering

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