Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy

Abstract

When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human death tolls from climate change relevant at any scale or location are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases in carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.

A Review of 3D Printing Batteries

“…Global climate change, caused by greenhouse gas emissions from conventional power generation from coal, natural gas, and oil, contributing 18%, 40%, and 1% to global electricity production in 2022, poses a concern [1]. This increases negative impacts on human health [2][3][4], reduces agricultural productivity [5], and has economic [6][7][8] consequences. One approach to eliminating the need for fossil fuel electric generation is to replace it with renewable sources to address these challenges [9].…”

Bad science and good intentions prevent effective climate action

“…(Arent et al, 2014, p. 662) After summarizing the peer-reviewed economic literature, the 2022 IPCC Report concluded that: "warming of ~4°C may cause a 10-23% decline in annual global GDP by 2100 relative to global GDP without warming." (IPCC 2022, p. 2459) In contrast, Pearce and Parncutt (2023) argue that global warming of even 2 °C will kill approximately 1 billion (mainly poorer) humans, and many climate scientists argue that the impact of even a 3°C increase could be "catastrophic" (e.g., .…”

Bad science and good intentions prevent effective climate action

“…(Arent et al, 2014, p. 662) After summarizing the peer-reviewed economic literature, the 2022 IPCC Report concluded that: "warming of ~4°C may cause a 10-23% decline in annual global GDP by 2100 relative to global GDP without warming." (IPCC , p. 2459 In contrast, Pearce and Parncutt (2023) argue that global warming of even 2 °C will kill approximately 1 billion (mainly poorer) humans, and many climate scientists argue that the impact of even a 3°C increase could be "catastrophic" (e.g., .…”