Quantifying global warming potential variations from greenhouse gas emission sources in forest ecosystems

Abstract

Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigating climate change. This research aimed to evaluate the GHG emissions of various sources within forested ecosystems and assess their respective contributions to global warming potential (GWP), vital for developing more targeted strategies to mitigate climate change, shaping climate policies, carbon accounting, sustainable forest management, and advancing scientific comprehension of ecosystem-climate dynamics. The study comprehensively analysed carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions EDGAR data of deforestation, fires, and natural processes such as organic soil decomposition within forested ecosystems. The assessment quantified the CO2 equivalent emissions for each category from 1990 to 2022 and forecasted till 2030. Our forecast shows that CO2 emissions from deforestation could reach between 3,990 and 4,529 metric ton (Mt) by 2030, with forest fires contributing an additional 750 Mt. Forestland CO2 absorption is expected to decline to -5134.80 Mt by 2030. There is uncertainty surrounding the forecasts for Organic soil CO2 (829.78 Mt) and Other land CO2 (-764.53 Mt). In addition, deforestation was a significant contributor to CO2 emissions, with a GWP ranging from 4000 to 4500, highlighting the complex interplay between natural processes and human activities in shaping atmospheric warming patterns. Additionally, forest fires emit a complex mix of GHGs. The potency of these gases in warming the planet varies considerably, with CH4 exhibiting a GWP range of 500 to 700 Mt CO2 equivalent, and CO2 ranging from 900 and 1350 Mt. These variations depend on fire intensity and its overall impact on the climate system. Forestland acts as powerful carbon sink, capturing atmospheric CO2 with negative GWP values between -7000 and -6000. Researchers suggest a multifaceted strategy such as stricter enforcement of sustainable forestry regulations, investing in projects that promote carbon sequestration, and reforestation. Additionally, advancements in drone technology, satellite imagery, remote sensing and advanced data analytics can aid in detecting and mitigating climate change impacts, ultimately paving the way for carbon neutrality. Graphical Abstract