Quantifying Heuristic Bias: Anchoring, Availability, and Representativeness

Richie, Megan B.; Josephson, S. Andrew

doi:10.1080/10401334.2017.1332631

Cited by 42 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Heuristics is a cognitive technique that acts as a shortcut to facilitate problem-solving and simplify decision making in situations of uncertainty. Although heuristics can increase the ease and efficiency of decisions, they can also cause bias and produce errors (Richie & Josephson, 2017) limiting future study of educational interventions designed to improve calibration of medical decisions. This study presents validity data to support a vignette-based instrument quantifying bias due to the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics.…”

Section: Heuristicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Investors Experience Heuristics in Earnings Forecasting?

Praditha¹,

Haliah

Habbe

et al. 2020

Business: Theory and Practice

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This research aims to examine empirically the overreliance on representativeness heuristic and anchoring-adjustment influences experienced by investors in forecasting future earnings. This research was a laboratory experiment with a design of 2x2 full factorial between subject. The results showed that representativeness heuristics were only experienced by investors who obtained positive information. Besides, this study also shows that investors do not overreliance on anchoring-adjustment heuristics. Generally, this research shows that cognitive biases occur when the information presented is of good value so that it can be taken into consideration for investors to be more careful in making predictions. Multiple benchmark information can be used as a consideration in evaluating the company’s earnings and stock performance.

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Section: Heuristicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Investors Experience Heuristics in Earnings Forecasting?

Praditha¹,

Haliah

Habbe

et al. 2020

Business: Theory and Practice

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show abstract

“…Yet, human cognitive attention and visual perception have limitations including physiological and cognitive restrictions. In diverse domains such as clinical diagnosis, EI, or even daily life decisions, we stop questioning misfitting pieces of evidence if an already coherent picture is emerging . Visual information, especially during a crime, is often “noisy.” Multiple factors such as poor lighting, brief temporal exposure, or disguises limit the ability of the victim to accurately perceive an assailant's face.…”

Section: Cognitive Biasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, by the time of trial, witnesses may be highly confident despite having little or no confidence at the beginning of the identification process . Albright, and independently Richie, write about such overconfidence (“confidence inflation”) in other fields, including clinical diagnostics .…”

Section: Limitations Of Visual Perception Cognition and Memory On Eimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Instead, past basic and field research have yielded major insights into both the construct of cognitive bias and the role of context effects. A more fruitful strategy, whenever possible, is to isolate and quantify specific biases within disciplines . The forensic field has been active in this area as evidenced by the National Commission on Forensic Science's Document on “Ensuring that Forensic Analysis is Based on Task‐Relevant Information” (http://www.justice.gov/ncfs/file/641676/download).…”

Section: Possible Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Diagnosing Crime and Diagnosing Disease‐II: Visual Pattern Perception and Diagnostic Accuracy

Satya‐Murti¹,

Lockhart²

2018

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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Previously, we reviewed how general cognitive processes might be susceptible to bias across both forensic and clinical fields, and how interdisciplinary comparisons could reduce error. We discuss several examples of clinical tasks which are heavily dependent on visual processing, comparing them to eyewitness identification (EI). We review the "constructive" nature of visual processing, and how contextual factors influence both medical experts and witnesses in decision making and recall. Overall, studies suggest common cognitive factors uniting these visual tasks, in both their strengths and shortcomings. Recently forensic sciences have advocated reducing errors by identifying and controlling nonrelevant information. Such efforts could effectively assist medical diagnosis. We suggest potential remedies for cognitive bias in these tasks. These can generalize across the clinical and forensic domains, including controlling the sequencing of contextual factors. One solution is an agnostic primary reading before incorporation of a complete history and interpretation.

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“…As part of a measured approach to evaluating a patient with suspected sarcoidosis, they are an important consideration to avoid diagnostic errors and cognitive biases that may plague reflexive decision making in sarcoidosis (►Table 1). 8,9 This article is intended to provide an overview of these presentations and the most commonly associated diseases, with attention to their prevalence, clinical features, and reciprocal impacts on disease outcomes.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Overlap Syndromes in Sarcoidosis: Clinical Features and Outcomes

James

2020

Semin Respir Crit Care Med

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Sarcoidosis is a multisystem inflammatory disease characterized by noncaseating granulomatous inflammation. While pulmonary sarcoidosis is most common, extrapulmonary involvement occurs in 50 to 74% of patients and can be the presenting abnormality in some patients. The diagnosis of sarcoidosis is based on a compatible clinical presentation in combination with granulomas on histology and exclusion of other causes. However, the absence of a diagnostic biomarker for sarcoidosis, in addition to the overlap of granulomatous inflammation and nonspecific clinical findings with other diseases, often results in a delayed diagnosis. Sarcoidosis overlap syndromes are typically described when sarcoidosis is diagnosed in the presence of another disease (concurrently or sequentially) with shared clinical and histologic features, or when sarcoidosis presents with clinical features typically observed in, but not diagnostic of, other diseases. Awareness of overlap syndromes is important for clinicians to avoid diagnostic errors and evaluate for concomitant diagnoses that may impact the management and outcome of sarcoidosis. This article is intended to provide an overview of these presentations and the most commonly associated diseases, with attention to their prevalence, clinical features, and reciprocal impacts on disease outcomes.

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Quantifying Heuristic Bias: Anchoring, Availability, and Representativeness

Abstract: Authors developed an instrument to isolate and quantify bias produced by the availability and representativeness heuristics, and illustrated the utility of their instrument by demonstrating decreased heuristic bias within medical contexts at higher training levels.

Cited by 42 publications

References 37 publications

Do Investors Experience Heuristics in Earnings Forecasting?

Do Investors Experience Heuristics in Earnings Forecasting?

Diagnosing Crime and Diagnosing Disease‐II: Visual Pattern Perception and Diagnostic Accuracy

Overlap Syndromes in Sarcoidosis: Clinical Features and Outcomes

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