Quantifying paradigm change in demography

Bijak, Jakub; Courgeau, Daniel; Silverman, Eric; Franck, Robert

doi:10.4054/demres.2014.30.32

Cited by 16 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Migration is a trending topic in demographic research, and its importance continues to increase (Bijak et al 2014 ). Agent-based modelling of migration decision-making is just starting to develop.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges

2016

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We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges

2016

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“…Our characterization of four paradigms in demography differs from the one of Courgeau and Frank, who refer to the micro-macro perspective through which relationships between the individual-and population-level have been seen over time [6]. 2 https://books.google.com/ngrams. Figures 1, 2, 3 and were generated using Google Books Ngram Viewer with the English language 2012 corpus, using data between 1800 and 2008.…”

Section: Census and Administrative Recordsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…The spread of computational, agent-based modeling has been seen as a potential solution. It is however too early to say whether this approach has made it to the core of a paradigm [2]. The systematic approach linking data-and theory-driven micro-founded simulation models with data at the population level has however become visible on demographic journals [3][17].…”

Section: Data-driven Discovery Meets Theory-driven Discoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Big Data and Population Processes: A Revolution?

Billari¹,

Zagheni²

2017

Preprint

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“…We have already shown how during the following centuries, paradigm change in demography was largely in the line of Bacon's second way (Courgeau, 2012;Bijak et al, 2014) and we think that his inductive approach is still the best way to achieve the objectives of population sciences. This is why now, over 350 years after Graunt's seminal work, we would like to examine if the first way is still followed in some particular areas of demography and to show what particular interests and aims may be involved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are the four Baconian idols still alive in demography?

Courgeau

Bijak

Franck

et al. 2014

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RésuméCet article examine les quatre sortes d'idoles qui selon le Novum Organon de Bacon (1620) affectent l'esprit humain. Il s'agit des idoles de la Tribu -qui résultent de la croyance «que le sens humain est la mesure des choses» ; des idoles de la caverne -qui sont propres à chacun de nous ; des idoles du forum -«qui prennent naissance dans le commerce et la communauté des hommes», et des idoles du théâtre -«introduites dans l'esprit par les divers systèmes des philosophes et les mauvaises méthodes de démonstration». Nous examinons si ces idoles sont toujours présen-tes dans les sciences sociales contemporaines, et examinons plusieurs exemples affectant la démographie -la génétique du comportement, la théorie postmoderne, l'héréditarisme et l'herméneutique moderne. L'analyse de ces exemples suggère fortement que la démographie doit rester fidèle à la méthode scientifique lorsqu'elle recourt à de nouvelles approches et inspirations. Mots-clésÉpistémologie, démographie, sciences sociales, génétique, méthodes. SummaryIn this paper, we examine the four Idols that beset human minds according to Francis Bacon's Novum Organum (1620). These are: Idols of the Tribe -false assertions resulting from the belief that «the sense of man is the measure of things»; Idols of the Cave -peculiar to the individual people; Idols of the Market Place -resulting from «the intercourse and association of men with each other», and Idols of the Theatre -stemming from «dogmas of philosophies and… wrong laws of demonstration». We aim to see if these Idols are still alive in contemporary population sciences, and look at several examples from the fringes of demography -behaviour genetics, postmodern theory, hereditarianism, and modern hermeneutics. The ana- 1.INED. 2.University of Southampton.3. Université catholique de Louvain.Are the four Baconian idols still alive in demography? 32lysis of these examples strongly suggests that demography needs to remain faithful to the scientific method whilst looking for new insights and inspirations.

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Quantifying paradigm change in demography

Cited by 16 publications

References 13 publications

Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges

Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges

Big Data and Population Processes: A Revolution?

Are the four Baconian idols still alive in demography?

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