Quantifying preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: A new methodology to assess health security at the subnational level in African countries

Oppenheim, Ben; Guerrero, Jaclyn; Euren, Jason; Bosa, Henry Kyobe; Agyarko, R.K. Degraft; Bah, A; Maeda, Justin; Kakunze, A.; Muruta, Allan; Makumbi, Issa; Beavogui, Maoro

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.700

Cited by 2 publications

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“…Similarly, there is evidence that country preparedness can vary substantially by pathogen, as well as subnationally—some countries and subregions have stronger capacity to detect, report, and respond to particular pathogens, perhaps based on patterns of prior exposure and capacity strengthening. 19 The EPI metric we use in this analysis does not capture these subnational and pathogen-specific dynamics; additional metric development could enable more fine-grained analyses of the relationship between preparedness, pathogen, political will, and reporting completeness.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Infectious Disease Underreporting Is Predicted by Country-Level Preparedness, Politics, and Pathogen Severity

et al. 2022

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Underreporting of infectious diseases is a pervasive challenge in public health that has emerged as a central issue in characterizing the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Infectious diseases are underreported for a range of reasons, including mild or asymptomatic infections, weak public health infrastructure, and government censorship. In this study, we investigated factors associated with cross-country and cross-pathogen variation in reporting. We performed a literature search to collect estimates of empirical reporting rates, calculated as the number of cases reported divided by the estimated number of true cases. This literature search yielded a dataset of reporting rates for 32 pathogens, representing 52 countries. We combined epidemiological and social science theory to identify factors specific to pathogens, country health systems, and politics that could influence empirical reporting rates. We performed generalized linear regression to test the relationship between the pathogen- and country-specific factors that we hypothesized could influence reporting rates, and the reporting rate estimates that we collected in our literature search. Pathogen- and country-specific factors were predictive of reporting rates. Deadlier pathogens and sexually transmitted diseases were more likely to be reported. Country epidemic preparedness was positively associated with reporting completeness, while countries with high levels of media bias in favor of incumbent governments were less likely to report infectious disease cases. Underreporting is a complex phenomenon that is driven by factors specific to pathogens, country health systems, and politics. In this study, we identified specific and measurable components of these broader factors that influence pathogen- and country-specific reporting rates and used model selection techniques to build a model that can guide efforts to diagnose, characterize, and reduce underreporting. Furthermore, this model can characterize uncertainty and correct for bias in reported infectious disease statistics, particularly when outbreak-specific empirical estimates of underreporting are unavailable. More precise estimates can inform control policies and improve the accuracy of infectious disease models.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Infectious Disease Underreporting Is Predicted by Country-Level Preparedness, Politics, and Pathogen Severity

et al. 2022

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“…This can include a detailed or targeted national level assessment, such as the WHO Joint External Evaluation (JEE), 45 Epidemic Preparedness Index, 46 Global Health Security Index, 47 or a more resource-intensive subnational level approach. 48 The preparedness assessment would serve as a baseline indicator of how ready a country (or subnational region) is to detect and respond to epidemic threats. Such measures typically take a systematic stock of health systems, personnel, supplies, and essential institutional capacities that are needed to support epidemic detection and response.…”

Section: Preparedness Assessment and Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building Resilience to Future Outbreaks:

2022

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Tables iv acknowledgmenTs v abbreviaTions vi execuTive summary vii 1 inTroducTion 1.1 Infectious Disease Risk 1.2 Report Structure 2 infecTious disease risk Profile 2.1 CAREC Risk Profile 3 PrinciPles of infecTious disease risk financing 3.1 Principles of Insurance 3.2 The COVID-19 Experience 3.3 COVID-19 and Insurability 3.4 Pandemics and Insurability 3.5 Quantifiability 4 case sTudies of infecTious disease risk financing 4.1 The Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility 4.2 PathogenRx 4.3 The African Risk Capacity Outbreak and Epidemic Insurance

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Quantifying preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: A new methodology to assess health security at the subnational level in African countries

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Infectious Disease Underreporting Is Predicted by Country-Level Preparedness, Politics, and Pathogen Severity

Infectious Disease Underreporting Is Predicted by Country-Level Preparedness, Politics, and Pathogen Severity

Building Resilience to Future Outbreaks:

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