Quantifying production potentials of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Wu, Dingrong; Yu, Qiang; Lu, Chunxia; Hengsdijk, H.

doi:10.1016/j.eja.2005.06.001

Cited by 132 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…In spite of the increased productivity of the wheat-maize rotation cropping system since the 1960s in the NCP (Wu et al 2006, the climate change in the last more than four decades was simulated to have negative impacts on crop potential yield for both wheat and maize, especially in the northern locations of the NCP. The negative impacts were mainly caused by reduced radiation together with shortened crop growth period (due to temperature increase).The decline in precipitation, especially in maize season, also reduced crop yield, which was indicated by the trends in the simulated rainfed yield.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain

et al. 2009

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This paper explores changes in climatic variables, including solar radiation, rainfall, fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) and temperature, during wheat season (October to May) and maize season (June to September) from 1961 to 2003 at four sites in the North China Plain (NCP), and evaluates the effects of these changes on crop growth processes, productivity and water demand by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator. A significant decline in radiation and rainfall was detected during the 43 years, while both temperature and FDR exhibit an increasing trend in both wheat and maize seasons. The average trend of each climatic variable for each crop season from the four sites is that radiation decreased by 13.2 and 6.2 MJ m −2 a −1 , precipitation decreased by 0.1 and 1.8 mm a −1 , minimum temperature increased by 0.05 and 0.02• C a −1 , maximum temperature increased by 0.03 and 0.01• C a −1 , FDR increased by 0.21 and 0.38% a −1 during wheat and maize season, respectively. Simulated crop water demand and potential yield was significantly decreased because of the declining trend in solar radiation. On average, crop water demand was decreased by 2.3 mm a −1 for wheat and 1.8 mm a −1 for maize if changes in crop variety were not considered. Simulated potential crop yields under fully irrigated condition declined about 45.3 kg ha contribute to the increase in actual crop yield for the wheat-maize double cropping system, contrasted to the decline in the potential crop yield. Further research on how the improvement in crop varieties and management practices can counteract the impact of climatic change may provide insight into the future sustainability of wheat-maize double crop rotations in the NCP.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain

et al. 2009

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“…The climate in the NCP is warm-temperate with cold winter and hot summer. Precipitation shows a high spatial and temporal variability (Wu et al, 2006) and ranges from about 500 mm in the north to 800 mm in the south . About 50 to 75% of the total precipitation occurs from July to September during the summer monsoon.…”

Section: Case Study China -Model Based Analysis Of a Winter Wheat -Sumentioning

confidence: 99%

Crop Models as Decision Support Systems in Crop Production

Graeff¹,

Link²,

Binder³

et al. 2012

Crop Production Technologies

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“…Their results show that a change in GMT will result in a wide range of climate changes across regions. Another recent study to apply the crop simulation model is Wu et al (2006), who attempted to quantify the production potential of winter wheat in the northern plain by taking into account climate change. The study demonstrated that low rainfall is a constraint for winter wheat in the northern part of the plain, while low radiation and high temperature restrict crop growth in the southern part.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the People's Republic of China's Grain Output - Regional and Crop Perspective

Lin

Liu²,

Wang³

et al. 2011

SSRN Journal

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Quantifying production potentials of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Cited by 132 publications

References 13 publications

Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain

Quantifying the effects of climate trends in the past 43 years (1961–2003) on crop growth and water demand in the North China Plain

Crop Models as Decision Support Systems in Crop Production

Impacts of Climate Change on the People's Republic of China's Grain Output - Regional and Crop Perspective

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