Variational quantum algorithms (VQA) have been proposed as one of the most promising approaches to demonstrate quantum advantage on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. However, it has been unclear whether VQA algorithms can maintain quantum advantage under the intrinsic noise of the NISQ devices, which deteriorates the quantumness. Here we propose a measure, called fermionic nonlinearity, to quantify the classical simulatability of quantum circuits designed for simulating fermionic Hamiltonians. Specifically, we construct a Monte-Carlo type classical algorithm based on the classical simulatability of fermionic linear optics, whose sampling overhead is characterized by the fermionic nonlinearity. As a demonstration of these techniques, we calculate the upper bound of the fermionic nonlinearity of a rotation gate generated by four-body fermionic interaction under the dephasing noise. Moreover, we estimate the sampling costs of the unitary coupled cluster singles and doubles (UCCSD) quantum circuits for hydrogen chains subject to the dephasing noise. We find that, depending on the error probability and atomic spacing, there are regions where the fermionic nonlinearity becomes very small or unity, and hence the circuits are classically simulatable. We believe that our method and results help to design quantum circuits for fermionic systems with potential quantum advantages.