Quantifying the association between domestic travel and the exportation of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases from Wuhan, China in 2020: a correlational analysis

Zhao, Shi; Zhuang, Zian; Cao, Peihua; Ran, Jinjun; Gao, Daozhou; Lou, Yijun; Yang, Lin; Cai, Yongli; Wang, Weiming; He, Daihai; Wang, Maggie Haitian

doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa022

Cited by 88 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in Wuhan, China and rapidly spread within China and then to various global cities with high interconnectivity with China. 6,7 The resulting ARI due to this coronavirus, a disease now coined COVID-19, is thought to be mainly transmitted by respiratory droplets from infected people. The mean serial interval of COVID-19 is 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19) and the initial estimate for the basic reproductive number was 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9), 8 although higher have since been reported with a mean of more than 3.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures

Rocklöv

Sjödin

Wilder‐Smith

2020

Journal of Travel Medicine

463

416

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures

Rocklöv

Sjödin

Wilder‐Smith

2020

Journal of Travel Medicine

463

416

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“…The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, formerly known as the '2019-nCoV'), which has emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5). The COVID-19 cases were soon exported to other Chinese cities and overseas (6), and the travel-related risk of disease spreading was suggested by (4,(7)(8)(9). Since the first confirmed imported case in Hong Kong on January 23 (10), the local government has implemented a series of control and prevention measures for COVID-19, including enhanced border screening and traffic restrictions (11,12).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020

Zhao

Gao

Zhuang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. As of February 15, there were 56 COVID-19 cases confirmed in Hong Kong since the first case with symptom onset on January 23, 2020.Methods: Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission events, which occurred in Hong Kong, and had primary cases known, as of February 15, 2020. An interval censored likelihood framework is adopted to fit three different distributions, Gamma, Weibull and lognormal, that govern the SI of COVID-19. We select the distribution according to the Akaike information criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc).Findings: We found the Gamma distribution performed lightly better than the other two distributions. Assuming a Gamma distributed model, we estimated the mean of SI at 4.4 days (95%CI: 2.9−6.7) and SD of SI at 3.0 days (95%CI: 1.8−5.8) by using the information of all 21 transmission events in Hong Kong.Conclusion: The SI of COVID-19 may be shorter than the preliminary estimates in previous works. Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are crucially needed in combating the COVID-19 outbreak.

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“…We estimated that the travel ban implemented on 1 of February by Australia has been very effective, reducing the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 by about 87%. Studies have been published on effectiveness of domestic and international travel restrictions on COVID-19 (19,20). However, this study is the first one to show the effectiveness of travel ban in Australia, and can inform a phased approach of partial lifting of bans when cases in the source country decline.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China

Costantino¹,

Heslop²,

MacIntyre³

2020

Preprint

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Background: Australia implemented a travel ban on China on February 1st 2020. Partial lifting of the ban is being considered, given the decline in incidence of COVID-19 in China. We modelled three scenarios to test the impact of travel bans on epidemic control in Australia. Scenario one was no ban, scenario two and three were the current ban followed by a full and partial lifting from the 8th of March 2020.Methods: We used disease incidence data from China and air travel passenger movements between China and Australia, derived from incoming passenger arrival cards. We estimated the true incidence of disease in China using data on expected proportion of under-ascertainment of cases. We modelled the epidemic in each scenario using an age specific deterministic model.Results: The modelled epidemic with the ban implementation fitted the observed incidence of cases well, predicting 57 cases on March 6th in Australia, compared to 66 observed on this date, however we did not account for imported cases from other countries. The modelled epidemic, without a travel ban implemented, would continue for more than a year resulting in more than 2000 cases and about 400 deaths. The impact of a partial lifting of a ban is minimal, and may be a policy option.Conclusions: Travel restrictions were highly effective for containing the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia and averted a much larger epidemic. This research can inform decisions on placing or lifting travel bans as a control measure for the COVID-19 epidemic.

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Quantifying the association between domestic travel and the exportation of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases from Wuhan, China in 2020: a correlational analysis

Cited by 88 publications

References 4 publications

COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures

COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures

Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020

The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China

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