Quantifying the economic competitiveness of cellulosic biofuel pathways under uncertainty and regional sensitivity

Abstract

This paper calculates 20-year net present values (NPV) and 10-year probabilities of default for six cellulosic biofuel pathways under eight location scenarios. Each location scenario resembles one of the nine commercial-scale cellulosic biofuel projects planned in the U.S. at the end of 2012 and accounts for location-specific factors such as capital costs, feedstock type, feedstock costs, energy commodity prices, and state corporate income tax rates. Negative 20-year NPVs and low probabilities of positive NPVs are calculated for seven of the eight location scenarios. Very high (>98%) probabilities of default are also calculated for seven of the eight location scenarios, while every scenario is calculated to have a probability of default above 50% over 10 years.