Quantifying the potential for future gene therapy to lower lifetime risk of polygenic late-onset diseases

Abstract

In a few decades, gene therapy techniques and genetic knowledge may sufficiently advance to support prophylactic gene therapy to prevent late-onset diseases (LODs). Polygenic risk scores and risk allele distribution of diagnosed individuals change with LOD diagnosis age, which may complicate statistical risk estimates. Population simulation naturally accounted for this effect. It quantified the correlation between aging process, polygenic score and hazard ratio of LODs at all ages based on clinical incidence rate and familial heritability for eight highly prevalent diseases. Simulations confirmed that the hypothetical gene therapy would be very beneficial in delaying the onset age and lowering lifetime risk of LODs. Longevity counterbalances the gains, with type 2 diabetes, stroke, and coronary artery disease regaining the pre-treatment baseline with 10-15 years of longer life. Alzheimer's disease proves most resistant, surpassing the baseline lifetime risk within 5 years longevity improvement. Characteristics of cancers may bring longer lasting benefits.

Moral reasons to edit the human genome: picking up from the Nuffield report

“…iiiThis possibility was first brought to our attention by Roman Teo Oliynyk’s unpublished manuscript ‘Could future gene therapy prevent aging diseases?’44 …”