Quantifying the probability of meteotsunami occurrence from synoptic atmospheric patterns

Šepić, Jadranka; Vilibić, Ivica; Monserrat, Sebastià

doi:10.1002/2016gl070754

Cited by 28 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Such an analysis will allow assessment of whether NSLOTT events commonly result from a specific atmospheric setup or not. A template for this analysis might be the recently introduced meteotsunami index for the area surrounding the Balearic Islands31. This index is a linear combination of a number of atmospheric variables that are highly correlated with high-frequency sea level oscillations measured at a single station.…”

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confidence: 99%

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

Vilibić

Šepić

2017

Sci Rep

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Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (<2 h) may substantially contribute to global sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

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confidence: 99%

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

Vilibić

Šepić

2017

Sci Rep

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“…The seasonal patterns of event distribution indicate that the observed events are related to atmospheric conditions and processes. In other regions (especially in Europe), the meteotsunami seasonality is associated with some specific synoptic conditions, which can be estimated from a low-pressure system at the surface, horizontal temperature front at 850 hPa, and advection by a jet stream wind at 500 hPa (Ozsoy et al, 2016;Šepić et al, 2012;Šepić et al, 2016;Vilibić et al, 2018). Spatially, the frequent meteotsunami occurrences at the DH tide gauge in Lat.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pressure-forced meteotsunami occurrences in the eastern Yellow Sea over the past decade (2010–2019): monitoring guidelines

Kim

Woo

Eom

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The eastern Yellow Sea meteotsunami occurrences between 2010 and 2019 and guidelines derived using favourable conditions of pressure disturbance (10 min rate of air pressure change) for meteotsunami generation are described. A total of 34 meteotsunami events over the past decade can be classified based on a current meteotsunami monitoring and observation system. 1 min intervals of mean sea level pressure and sea level observations from 89 meteorological stations and 16 tide gauges are analysed. Most of the classified meteotsunami events (76 %, 26/34) in the eastern Yellow Sea are found to be between February and June during the winter-to-summer transition, which shows a strong seasonal trend. The meteotsunami occurrences are spatially frequent at the DaeHeuksando (DH) tide gauge, known as a beacon tide gauge of the observation system. It appears that the specific characteristics (intensity, occurrence rate, and propagation) of the pressure disturbance are in common on extreme meteotsunami events that are classified by applying the hazardous meteotsunami conditions among the 34 events. For a risk level assessment of the eastern Yellow Sea meteotsunami occurrences, favourable conditions of the pressure disturbance for meteotsunami generation are utilized. Overall, this study can provide useful and practical guidelines such as operation period, potential hot spot, and risk level to monitoring system operators when operating the monitoring system of the Yellow Sea.

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“…Renault et al () used a coupled atmosphere‐ocean modeling system to reproduce the whole process, from atmospheric source to meteotsunami ocean dynamics: with further improvements, this system may eventually be used in operational forecasting of a meteotsunami events. Šepić, Vilibić, et al () constructed an atmospheric index to evaluate the meteotsunamis probability of occurrence with critical meteorological synoptic conditions above the Balearic Islands for a possible warning system. A framework for the PTHA of meteotsunamis has been introduced by Geist et al () in the northeast U.S.…”

Section: Tsunami Generation and Propagation: Causes Mechanisms And mentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

Grezio

Babeyko²,

Baptista

et al. 2017

Reviews of Geophysics

210

165

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Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run‐up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

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Quantifying the probability of meteotsunami occurrence from synoptic atmospheric patterns

Cited by 28 publications

References 27 publications

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

Pressure-forced meteotsunami occurrences in the eastern Yellow Sea over the past decade (2010–2019): monitoring guidelines

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

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