2023
DOI: 10.1097/xcs.0000000000000658
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Quantifying the Prognostic Value of Preoperative Surgeon Intuition: Comparing Surgeon Intuition and Clinical Risk Prediction as Derived from the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Risk Calculator

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Surgical risk prediction models traditionally use patient attributes and measures of physiology to generate predictions about postoperative outcomes. However, the surgeon’s assessment of the patient may be a valuable predictor, given the surgeon’s ability to detect and incorporate factors that existing models cannot capture. We compare the predictive utility of surgeon intuition and a risk calculator derived from the American College of Surgeons (ACS) NSQIP. … Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
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“…In addition to this work, our group has also sought to understand the potential value of combining quantified surgeon intuition with an existing clinical data-based risk calculator. In our recent study evaluating preoperative surgeon intuition, 10 we asked general surgeons to rate their patient’s risk of any complication (defined by the ACS-NSQIP relative to the average patient undergoing the same procedure. We found that while preoperative intuition is an independent predictor of postoperative complication with an AUROC of 0.70, the logistic regression model trained on clinical predictors outperformed surgeon intuition with an AUROC of 0.83 and was not improved by its addition.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In addition to this work, our group has also sought to understand the potential value of combining quantified surgeon intuition with an existing clinical data-based risk calculator. In our recent study evaluating preoperative surgeon intuition, 10 we asked general surgeons to rate their patient’s risk of any complication (defined by the ACS-NSQIP relative to the average patient undergoing the same procedure. We found that while preoperative intuition is an independent predictor of postoperative complication with an AUROC of 0.70, the logistic regression model trained on clinical predictors outperformed surgeon intuition with an AUROC of 0.83 and was not improved by its addition.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%