Quantifying the Risks of Unexploded Ordnance at Closed Military Bases

Abstract

Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with unexploded ordnance (UXO) left over from live-fire weapons training. These sites present risks to civilians who might come into contact with the UXO and cause it to explode. This paper presents the first systems analysis model for assessing the explosion risks of UXO at former military training ranges. We develop a stochastic model for estimating the probability of exposure to and explosion of UXO, before and after site cleanup. An application of the model to a 310-acre parcel at Fort Ord, California, shows that substantial risk can remain even after a site is declared clean. We estimate that risk to individual construction workers of encountering UXO that explodes would range from 4 × 10 -4 to 5 × 10 -2 , depending on model assumptions, well above typical Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) target risk levels of 10 -4 to 10 -6 . In contrast, a qualitative UXO risk assessment method, the Munitions and Explosives of Concern Hazard Assessment (MEC HA), developed by an interagency work group led by the EPA, indicates that the explosion risk at the case study site is low and "compatible with current and determined or reasonably anticipated future risk." We argue that a quantitative approach, like that illustrated in this paper, is necessary to provide a more complete picture of risks and the opportunities for risk reduction.

Distribution and Fate of Military Explosives and Propellants in Soil: A Review

“…Russian officials have admitted to large-scale use of mines in Chechnya [119]. During 1999-2000 Russian forces deployed antipersonnel mines from airplanes, helicopters, and rockets [120,121] [124].…”

“…Some munitions use dates back to the US Civil War and World War I [69,125]. Estimates for remediation of this acreage have ranged from tens of billions of dollars to more than $100 billion [124].…”

Summary Review of the Aquatic Toxicology of Munitions Constituents

“…Munitions also pose risks associated with the physical impacts of accidental detonation (MacDonald et al 2009). Areas where explosives impact soil or sediment quality are sometimes extensive; some artillery ranges are several square miles in area.…”

Remote Sensing of Explosives-Induced Stress in Plants: Hyperspectral Imaging Analysis for Remote Detection of Unexploded Threats

“…This study is the first to demonstrate potential to delineate subsurface explosives over large areas using remote sensing of vegetation with aerial-based hyperspectral systems.in soil and is highly mobile unlike TNT and has entered groundwater sources of some communities around military bases [5]. With almost 2000 sites at closed military bases contaminated with UXO, explosives contamination at military testing sites also complicate base conversions after closure [6,7]. Over the course of years of being in soil, ordnance casings containing RDX degrade from contact with water in the form of rain and soil moisture [8].…”