Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

Hanea, Daniela; Jagtman, H M; Alphen, L. L. M. M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2010.02.011

Cited by 13 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…For example, interdisciplinary problems, such as those often encountered in conservation settings (e.g., habitat conservation, species recovery planning), require experts from multiple backgrounds to properly address the issue. As a result of variability in professional background and training, experts may differ in their abilities to respond to calibration variables, depending on the number and selection of these variables (Cooke et al ; Hanea et al ; Eggstaff et al ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie

Wittmann

Cooke

Rothlisberger

et al. 2014

Conservation Biology

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Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is Resumen: Identificar cuáles especies no-nativas se volverán invasoras y predecir el daño que causarán es complicado y presenta un problema significativo para el manejo de recursos naturales. Con frecuencia los datos o recursos necesarios para la evaluación de riesgo ecológico están incompletos o son inexistentes, lo que deja mal equipados a quienes toman las decisiones ambientales para manejar efectivamente recursos naturales valiosos. El juicio experto estructurado (JEE) es un método con bases matemáticas y de desempeño para obtener, sopesar y agregar juicios expertos. En contraste con otros métodos de obtención y agregación de juicios expertos (donde, por ejemplo, se le pueden asignar pesos iguales a los expertos), JEE sopesa a cada experto con base en su asertividad estadística y capacidad de informar por medio de la medida de desempeñoPaper submitted November 12, 2013; revised manuscript accepted May 20, 2014. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie

Wittmann

Cooke

Rothlisberger

et al. 2014

Conservation Biology

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“…Next section shows the influences of management on human model. The robustness analysis of the expert judgment is presented in another paper in this conference (Hanea, 2013a). Another paper (Hanea, 2013b) shows the quantification results for company employees and contractors and discusses the differences between them.…”

Section: Questionnaire Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling contractor and company employee behavior in high hazard operation

Grøtan¹

2013

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis

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The recent blow-out and subsequent environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have highlighted a number of serious problems in scientific thinking about safety. Risk models have generally concentrated on technical failures, which are easier to model and for which there are more concrete data. However, many primary cause of the disasters, such as BP's Texas City and Deepwater Horizon, are rooted in management decisions and organizational. Therefore, there is a strong need to develop a risk management support tool for chemical process industries which incorporates human and organizational factors into quantified risk models. In this paper, we model two human performance model for oil and gas company Royal Dutch Shell. Interviews were conducted to obtain important human factors. As the quality and operation of the management actions have important influences on human factors (e.g. safety attitude, training), we have linked a safety management model with the human factors model and quantify the risk implications of different management changes to prevent accidents. The methodology of integrating organisational factors into a Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) model is discussed in Lin et al. (2012). In this paper the development and quantification of human and management factors for an international oil company is given.

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“…We invite five field experts to determine severity (S), occurrence (O), and detectability (D) for each FFM and to calculate the RPN (where PRN � S•O•D), as shown in Table 1. Meanwhile, it is true that the field experience and statistical knowledge can influence the experts' performance [14]. erefore, we use AHP to calculate the weight of experts according to their jobs, experience, and education.…”

Section: A Key Fault Tree Of Turretmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…erefore, there is not enough available information not only in the early design stage, but also in the field-processing stage of similar products. To address this problem, expert evaluation [13] and fuzzy theory [14] have been commonly studied. AHP as a traditional expert evaluation method has been applied in many complex products' performance assessments such as maintainability and cost effectiveness [15,16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New and Practical Reliability Allocation Method for a Complex System of NC Turrets

Chen

Wang

et al. 2019

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Existing methods cannot satisfy the reliability allocation demands of the early design phase for the modern complex system of NC turrets. Motivated by the need of practical application, this paper proposes a new and practical reliability allocation method in the early design stage for NC turrets considering failure mode and system complexity, information inaccessibility, and expert knowledge limitation. First, the fault tree of a NC turret is quickly built to clear the relationship between the system's compositions and failure modes up. Second, the happening probability of each failure event in the fault tree is firstly calculated by fuzzy expert evaluation to provide the reliability allocation with complete information. ird, by discussing the practical meaning of every layer in the fault tree, the proposed allocation strategy is within the experts' knowledge scope for evaluating accurately. Eventually, the application result of the AK36100 A turret is presented and compared with some existing allocation methods, illustrating the rationality of the proposed allocation method.

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Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

Cited by 13 publications

References 11 publications

Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie

Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie

Modeling contractor and company employee behavior in high hazard operation

A New and Practical Reliability Allocation Method for a Complex System of NC Turrets

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