Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of joint measures led by the Fangcang shelter hospitals in the response of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

Abstract

Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and time interval from illness onset to diagnosis in the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic. Methods We use SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-stage epidemic in Wuhan and calculate the time dependent basic reproduction number (BRN) of symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic infected individuals, exposed individuals and community isolated infected individuals. Scenarios that varied in the maximum numbers of open beds in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals, the intervals from onset to visit hospitals and diagnosis, are considered to quantitatively assess the optimal measures. Findings: The BRN is decreased from 4.50 on Jan 22 to 0.18 on March 18. Without Fangcang shelter hospitals, the case number of cumulative and death will increase by 18.58% and 51.73%. If the number of beds in the designated hospitals decrease by 1/2 or 1/4, the number of cumulative cases will increase by 178.04% and 92.1%. If the time interval from illness onset to hospital visit is 4 days, the number of cumulative cases and deaths will increase by 2.79% and 6.19%. If Fangcang shelter hospitals are not established, the number of beds in designated hospitals reduce 1/4 and the time interval from visiting hospitals to diagnosis is 4 days, the cumulative number of cases will increase 268.97%.