Quantitative evaluation of the impact of climate change and human activities on Jialing river runoff changes in the past 60 years, China

Wang, Hongxiang; Ma, Yinchu; Yang, Huan; Hong, Fengtian; Guo, Wei

doi:10.2166/wcc.2023.452

Cited by 17 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The study used the Mann‐Kendall (M‐K) test to assess inter‐annual trends in runoff and sediment load (Wang, Ma, et al, 2023; Yin, Gao, Ran, et al, 2023). This test is widely used because it does not require the sequence to follow a normal distribution and is not confounded by missing values.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These methods can be grouped into three categories: statistical analysis, elastic coefficient, and hydrological modelling (Shi et al, 2023). Statistical analysis methods, such as regression models (Yin, Gao, Huang, et al, 2023), double cumulative curves (Jiang et al, 2021), and the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (Wang, Ma, et al, 2023), can be used to identify each factor's contribution to runoff variability based on its correlation with runoff. Guo et al (2022) used the slope change ratio of the accumulative quantity method to calculate the proportion of contribution of climate and anthropogenic disturbance to runoff alterations in the middle and lower regions of the Yangtze River.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, it requires a significant amount of input monitoring data, and the calibration and validation of model parameters remain uncertain (Shi et al, 2023). The elastic coefficient method requires fewer parameters that are easy to obtain (Wang, Ma, et al, 2023). The method assumes that the change in water storage in the basin is zero on an inter‐annual scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inter‐ and intra‐annual fluctuations and attribution analysis of runoff and sediment transport in the middle and lower Yangtze River

Yu,

Du,

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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Assessing the changing regimes of runoff and sediment load in rivers, as well as analysing their underlying causes, is essential for maintaining the ecological integrity of rivers and promoting the sustainable development of water resources. Current methods of attribution analysis focus on accounting for the effects of climate change and human activities on inter‐annual variability in streamflow and sediment. However, the contribution of individual drivers to intra‐annual hydrologic variability is often overlooked. The study analysed the inter‐ and intra‐annual fluctuations in runoff and sediment load in the middle and lower Yangtze River using a water‐sediment variation attribution model, the Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm, and the Multiple‐Factor Attribution method. The results showed that human activities were responsible for over 70% of the inter‐ and intra‐annual fluctuation in runoff and sediment load in the Yichang, Hankou, and Datong sections. Additionally, it was found that human activities were the main contributor to the reduction in both runoff and sediment load in all sections. Closer to the Yangtze estuary, human influence on intra‐annual fluctuation of runoff decreases while climate change influence increases, and human influence on both inter‐ and intra‐annual fluctuation of sediment load becomes less significant. The sensitivity of annual runoff to precipitation is greater than that of air temperature and evaporation in the Yichang, Hankou, and Datong sections. An increase of 10% in precipitation from baseline values leads to a corresponding increase of 3.13%, 2.24%, and 3.91% in runoff for the Yichang, Hankou, and Datong sections. The annual sediment load is more sensitive to changes in runoff than to precipitation, air temperature, and evaporation in each section. A 10% increase in runoff from the baseline value leads to an annual sediment load increase of 20.36%, 10.11%, and 8.78% at Yichang, Hankou, and Datong, respectively. This study provides a theoretical basis and guidance for decision‐making to protect and sustainably develop the water and sediment resources in the Yangtze River Basin.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inter‐ and intra‐annual fluctuations and attribution analysis of runoff and sediment transport in the middle and lower Yangtze River

Yu,

Du,

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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“…In recent years, quantifying the evolution of runoff and drought under the changing environmental background has been a hot topic (Jiang et al, 2019; Yan et al, 2020). To evaluate and identify the contribution of different driving factors to runoff changes, quantitative analysis methods are commonly used (Huang et al, 2019; Wang et al, 2023). Currently, there are two main research approaches for analysing the contribution of runoff changes: (1) directly using quantitative analysis methods to analyse the runoff evolution sequence (Huang et al, 2019; Luo et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of runoff and hydrological drought changes in an ecologically vulnerable basin in semi‐arid regions of China

Li,

Wang,

Xue

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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Climate change and human activities have been widely recognized as two major factors that deeply influence hydrological processes. Evaluating and identifying the contribution between different drivers contributes to better regional water management regulation. In this study, we used the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model to quantify the contributions of different climatic variables and human activities to runoff in the Hunhe basin, which has a semiarid climate, in northern China. Through trend analysis, the study period is divided into the ‘baseline period’ (1982–1999) and the ‘change period’ (2000–2020). The results indicated that compared with climate change, human activities were the major factors decreasing runoff, contributing more than 86.3% to the runoff reduction in the change period. Climate change increased winter runoff but decreased summer and autumn runoff, resulting in an overall decrease in runoff. There is a trend of increasing severity of hydrological drought in the Hunhe basin, where climate change accounted for 28.2% of the total impact and human activities accounted for 72.8%. The change in runoff and hydrological drought was mainly due to human activities, including changing farmland to grassland and forest. These results would be helpful for policy‐makers and researchers to better understand the responses of runoff and hydrological drought to these changing environmental conditions and offering references for future water resource planning and management at the basin scale.

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“…Climate change and human activities can cause changes in river runoff and sediment transport [1][2][3][4][5]. Climate warming accelerates the water cycle in the watershed, leading to changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, which in turn affect surface hydrological processes [6,7]; the impact of human activities on the watershed's water cycle is mainly manifested in land use/cover change [8], changes in watershed underlying surface conditions caused by the construction of large-scale water conservancy projects, etc., which, in turn, affect the production and accumulation processes within the watershed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Compound Response Relationship between Hydro-Sedimentary Variations and Dominant Driving Factors: A Case Study of the Huangfuchuan basin

Yao,

Li,

Yao

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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The Huangfuchuan basin is one of the major sources of coarse sediment in the Yellow River and has long been a focal point and challenge for the conservation of soil and water in the Yellow River Basin. In this study, we analyzed the phase differentiation characteristics of water–sediment variations during the flood season in the Huangfuchuan basin using a long-term dataset. We elucidated the complex response relationship between water–sediment variations and meteorological factors and human activities, which is of great significance for revealing the mechanisms of water–sediment variations in the region and establishing a scientific water–sediment regulation system in the basin. Statistical methods such as the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimation, Pettitt nonparametric test, and principal component analysis were employed to identify and analyze the trends and dominant driving factors before and after the water–sediment variations and abrupt changes in parameters such as rainfall and temperature in the Huangfuchuan basin. Additionally, multiple regression analysis was used to determine the extent of the contribution of climate and human activities to water–sediment variations in the Huangfuchuan basin. The study revealed that the year 2000 was a turning point for water–sediment variations, with decreases of 11.3%, 76.7%, and 85.1% in flood season rainfall, flood season runoff, and flood season sediment transport, respectively. Despite significant changes in the underlying surface conditions of the Huangfuchuan basin, the relationship between flood season sediment transport and flood season runoff remained a power–law relationship. In the absence of obvious abrupt changes in temperature, rainfall, and other meteorological factors, the changes in the underlying surface caused by human activities are the main cause of the changes in runoff and sediment yield in the Huangfuchuan basin. The current level of vegetation restoration in the Huangfuchuan basin is still relatively low, making it difficult to exert stronger control on sediment yield during the flood season. Meanwhile, human activities, primarily based on engineering measures, play a more significant role in the control of soil and water loss in the basin.

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Quantitative evaluation of the impact of climate change and human activities on Jialing river runoff changes in the past 60 years, China

Cited by 17 publications

References 35 publications

Inter‐ and intra‐annual fluctuations and attribution analysis of runoff and sediment transport in the middle and lower Yangtze River

Inter‐ and intra‐annual fluctuations and attribution analysis of runoff and sediment transport in the middle and lower Yangtze River

Attribution of runoff and hydrological drought changes in an ecologically vulnerable basin in semi‐arid regions of China

The Compound Response Relationship between Hydro-Sedimentary Variations and Dominant Driving Factors: A Case Study of the Huangfuchuan basin

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