Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

Hobday, Alistair J.; Boschetti, Fabio; Moeseneder, Christian H.; Stephenson, Robert L.; Bessey, Cindy; Bulman, Cathy; Contardo, S.; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Dambacher, Jeffery M.; Dutra, Leo X.C.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Lenton, Andrew; Little, L. Richard; Mapstone, Bruce D.; McDonald, Karlie; Plagányi, Éva E.; Rothlisberg, Peter C.; Strzelecki, Joanna; Thompson, P. A.; Putten, Ingrid van

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.015

Cited by 13 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 60 publications

(77 reference statements)

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“…La creación del SNIA concibe la creación de los Sistemas Territoriales de Innovación (STI) 7 para facilitar la implementación de los objetivos nacionales de CTI del sector agrícola. Se han propuesto varias metodologías para tal desarrollo (Corporación PBA, 2017;Martínez Pachón et al, 2020), pero todas ellas carecen de la replicabilidad del proceso (y la consecuente posibilidad de aprendizaje) que solo un proceso estructurado de planificación estratégica puede ofrecer (Bryson, 2010;Hobday et al, 2020). En línea con los enfoques normativos para el desarrollo de sistemas de innovación (Andersen & Andersen, 2017;Jezic von Gesseneck et al, 2018), nosotros también proponemos que el enfoque metodológico más racional para la implementación de los STI es la identificación de las acciones estratégicas que incrementan la posibilidad de alcanzar el escenario futuro de sistemas de producción local sostenibles.…”

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La búsqueda activa de soluciones para los problemas de los sistemas agrícolas: una visión desde análisis de decisiones

Burbano-Figueroa¹,

Robles²,

Monroy³

et al. 2022

SUMNEG

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Introduction / objective: Nowadays society demands from agricultural systems not only the provision of goods for the market but also environmental and social services. This transformation is a challenge due to the unpredictability of executing actions in a complex system with no certainty that it will lead to the desired outcome. This perspective paper describes the application of Decision Analysis (DA) for such uncertain scenarios of decision-making in agricultural systems. Methodology: This paper describes a general protocol for the implementation of DA, proposes a temporal-spatial framework for the application of DA in agricultural systems using concepts of Decision Theory and strategic planning, and introduces a case study for describing how this framework can be applied to agricultural innovation systems. Results: Problems in agricultural systems can be outlined as decision analysis models of specific spatial-temporal scale (planning horizons). This framework has potential for the application of DA in the planning efforts of the Colombian National Agricultural Innovation System, but especially in the implementation of Regional Innovation Systems. Conclusions: We provided an extended DA framework aimed to constitute a sound basis for finding solutions in the complex setting of agricultural systems, for planning actions of science, technology and innovation and for supporting the decision making process of sustainability transformation of agricultural systems.

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La búsqueda activa de soluciones para los problemas de los sistemas agrícolas: una visión desde análisis de decisiones

Burbano-Figueroa¹,

Robles²,

Monroy³

et al. 2022

SUMNEG

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Predicting and assessing the impacts of COVID-19 disruption on marine science and sectors in Australia

Hobday,

Walters,

Stephenson

et al. 2024

Rev Fish Biol Fisheries

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By March 2020 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was anticipated to present a major challenge to the work undertaken by scientists. This pandemic could be considered just one of the shocks that human society has had and will be likely to confront again in the future. As strategic thinking about the future can assist performance and planning of scientific research in the face of change, the pandemic presented an opportunity to evaluate the performance of marine researchers in prediction of future outcomes. In March 2020, two groups of researchers predicted outcomes for the Australian marine research sector, and then evaluated these predictions after 18 months. The self-assessed coping ability of a group experienced in ‘futures studies’ was not higher than the less-experienced group, suggesting that scientists in general may be well placed to cope with shocks. A range of changes to scientific endeavours (e.g., travel, fieldwork) and to marine sectors (e.g., fisheries, biodiversity) were predicted over the first 12–18 months of COVID-19 disruption. The predicted direction of change was generally correct (56%) or neutral (25%) for predictions related to the scientific endeavour, and correct (73%) or mixed (9%) for predictions related to sectors that are the focus of marine research. The success of this foresighting experiment suggests that the collective wisdom of scientists can be used by their organisations to consider the impact of shocks and disruptions and to better prepare for and cope with shocks. Graphical abstract Word cloud analysis of free text responses to questions about expected impact of COVID-19 on the activities associated with marine science

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Verändernde Welt mit exponentieller Beschleunigung: Wie kann Foresight einen Beitrag für Organisationen leisten?

Karwehl

Kauffeld

2022

Gr Interakt Org

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Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

Cited by 13 publications

References 60 publications

La búsqueda activa de soluciones para los problemas de los sistemas agrícolas: una visión desde análisis de decisiones

La búsqueda activa de soluciones para los problemas de los sistemas agrícolas: una visión desde análisis de decisiones

Predicting and assessing the impacts of COVID-19 disruption on marine science and sectors in Australia

Verändernde Welt mit exponentieller Beschleunigung: Wie kann Foresight einen Beitrag für Organisationen leisten?

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