Advances in computing have enabled microsecond all-atom molecular dynamics trajectories of protein folding that can be used to compare with and test critical assumptions of theoretical models. We show that recent simulations by the Shaw group (10,11,14,15) are consistent with a key assumption of an Ising-like theoretical model that native structure grows in only a few regions of the amino acid sequence as folding progresses. The distribution of mechanisms predicted by simulating the master equation of this native-centric model for the benchmark villin subdomain, with only two adjustable thermodynamic parameters and one temperature-dependent kinetic parameter, is remarkably similar to the distribution in the molecular dynamics trajectories. T heoretical models are essential for understanding the complex self-assembly reaction of protein folding, despite their reliance on apparently strong simplifying assumptions (1-5). In fact, the validated assumptions in a successful model point to the important features in protein folding. However, these assumptions are generally difficult to either justify or falsify by experiment. Fortunately, we can now examine them directly, thanks to recent advances in computing that allow us to study folding kinetics and mechanisms with all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations (6-13). In particular, through the work of the Shaw group (10,11,14,15), many folding and unfolding transitions have been observed in long equilibrium trajectories. Here, and in the accompanying paper by Best et al. (16), we compare the key assumptions of a simple Ising-like model with the results from the all-atom MD simulations of the Shaw group (10,11,14,15). We also compare the distribution of folding mechanisms predicted by the model and the MD simulations.Ideally, to capture the full complexity of the process, a theoretical model for protein folding should enumerate all relevant conformations and specify the transition rates between them. To be useful, the model should also quantify the observables in equilibrium and kinetics experiments, and, like any theoretical model, be testable by new experiments. Among the very large number of proposed models (see bibliography in SI Text), a simple Ising-like model based on the contact map of the folded structure (17, 18), with just two adjustable thermodynamic parameters and a third parameter to set the time scale for kinetics, is of particular interest because it is the only one thus far that enumerates conformations and quantitatively explains so many different kinds of experimental results (19)(20)(21)(22). The two key assumptions of the Ising-like model are that amino acid interactions absent in the native structure play an insignificant role in determining the folding mechanism (23-25) and that native structure grows in only a few regions of the amino acid sequence as folding progresses. In the accompanying paper by Best et al. (16), the MD simulations for nine proteins with clear two-state kinetics simulated by the Shaw group (10,11,14,15) are found to be con...