Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2005.04.015

Cited by 115 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…3.1.3 for a variable l). Equation 3 is well suited to describe the typical S-shaped vulnerability curve used in damage assessment for earthquakes (Fabbrocino et al 2005), volcanic eruptions (Spence et al 2005;Zuccaro et al 2008), winds (Wehner et al 2010), fluvial floods (Reese and Ramsay 2010), tsunamis (Srivihok et al 2012) or asteroid impacts (Mignan et al 2011). In the present case, we consider a single-damage state, which is an oversimplification compared to standard risk assessment.…”

Section: Building a Stochastic Event Setmentioning

confidence: 99%

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability-high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.

show abstract

Section: Building a Stochastic Event Setmentioning

confidence: 99%

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is of critical importance for the community and the environment to prevent such incidents from happening. Fuel storage tanks in petrochemical plants need to be regarded as high risk structures, due to their fragility to earthquakes and their potential for cascading effects (Fabbrocino et al, 2005). Their low impulsive frequencies can fall within the excitation frequencies of earthquakes and significant effort is required to isolate them against seismic vibrations.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Conception of a 3D Metamaterial-Based Foundation for Static and Seismic Protection of Fuel Storage Tanks

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Fluid-filled tanks in tank farms of industrial plants can experience severe damage and trigger cascading effects in neighboring tanks due to large vibrations induced by strong earthquakes. In order to reduce these tank vibrations, we have explored an innovative type of foundation based on metamaterial concepts. Metamaterials are generally regarded as manmade structures that exhibit unusual responses not readily observed in natural materials. If properly designed, they are able to stop or attenuate wave propagation. Recent studies have shown that if locally resonant structures are periodically placed in a matrix material, the resulting metamaterial forms a phononic lattice that creates a stop band able to forbid elastic wave propagation within a selected band gap frequency range. Conventional phononic lattice structures need huge unit cells for low-frequency vibration shielding, while locally resonant metamaterials can rely on lattice constants much smaller than the longitudinal wavelengths of propagating waves. Along this line, we have investigated 3D structured foundations with effective attenuation zones conceived as vibration isolation systems for storage tanks. In particular, the three-component periodic foundation cell has been developed using two common construction materials, namely concrete and rubber. Relevant frequency band gaps, computed using the Floquet-Bloch theorem, have been found to be wide and in the low-frequency region. Based on the designed unit cell, a finite foundation has been conceived, checked under static loads and numerically tested on its wave attenuation properties. Then, by means of a parametric study we found a favorable correlation between the shear stiffness of foundation walls and wave attenuation. On this basis, to show the potential improvements of this foundation, we investigated an optimized design by means of analytical models and numerical analyses. In addition, we investigated the influence of cracks in the matrix material on the elastic wave propagation, and by comparing the dispersion curves of the cracked and uncracked materials we found that small cracks have a negligible influence on dispersive properties. Finally, harmonic analysis results displayed that the conceived smart foundations can effectively isolate storage tanks.

show abstract

“…However, this sample can be used for damage assessing within the scheme of Bayesian reasoning. A potential field of application of the proposed approach are risk studies of hazardous industrial facilities like the ones described by Fabbrocino et al (2005) and Na and Shinozuka (2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fabbrocino et al 2005, Lee, Rosowski 2006Li, Ellingwood 2007). Such a function does not contain subjectively assigned information in the form of epistemic uncertainty measures (is purely objective).…”

Section: Crisp and Uncertain Fragility Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Structures Subjected to Accidental Actions Using Crisp and Uncertain Fragility Functions

Vaidogas

Juocevičius

2009

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An application of fragility functions to the assessment of potential damage due to an accidental action is analysed. The assessment is carried out as an estimation of the probability of a foreseeable damage event (damage probability). This probability is expressed as a mean value of a fragility function developed for the damage event under study. A Bayesian prior (posterior) distribution specified for this mean value is used as an estimate of the damage probability. The prior distribution is derived by transforming prior knowledge through the fragility function and “mapping” this knowledge on the scale of probability values. The technique of Bayesian bootstrap resampling is applied to update the prior distribution. The new information used for the updating consists of a relatively small number of experimental observations of the accidental action. To facilitate the updating, these observations are transformed into a fictitious statistical sample of fragility function values. The updating is first carried out with a fragility function which expresses aleatory uncertainty only. Then it is proposed how to perform the updating with the fragility function which quantifies both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This is done by discretising continuous distributions of the epistemic uncertainty related to values (parameters) of the fragility function. The proposed approach allows to utilise different sources of information for the damage assessment. A potential field of application of this approach is risk studies of hazardous industrial facilities. Santrauka Analizuojamas pažeidžiamumo funkcijų taikymas vertinant potencialius statybinių konstrukcijų pažeidimus avariniais poveikiais. Vertinimas atliekamas skaičiuojant galimos konstrukcijos pažaidos tikimybę. Ši tikimybė yra išreiškiama vidutine pažeidžiamumo funkcijos reikšme. Ta funkcija yra formuojama analizuojamam pažaidos įvykiui. Apriorinis ir aposteriorinis Bajeso skirstiniai yra taikomi pažaidos tikimybės reikšmei vertinti. Apriorinis skirstinys yra gaunamas pasinaudojant turima informacija apie avarinį poveikį ir transformuojant šią informaciją per pažeidžiamumo funkciją. Aposteriorinis skirstinys yra gaunamas pasitelkiant naują, eksperimentinę informaciją apie avarinį poveikį. Aposterioriniam skirstiniui gauti taikomas kartotinio statistinio ėmimo (būtstrapo) metodas. Naują informaciją sudaro eksperimentiniai avarinio poveikio charakteristikų matavimai, kurie tiksliai atitinka konstrukcijos ekspozicijos tiriamo poveikio situaciją. Apriorinis ir aposteriorinis skirstiniai išreiškia episteminį neapibrėžtumą vertinamos pažaidos tikimybės reikšmės atžvilgiu. Šie skirstiniai yra gaunami taikant tiek pažeidžiamumo funkciją, kuri išreiškia tik stochastinį neapibrėžtumą, tiek funkciją, kurios reikšmės yra neapibrėžtos epistemine prasme. Potenciali siūlomo metodo taikymo sritis yra pavojingų pramoninių objektų rizikos vertinimas.

show abstract

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas

Cited by 115 publications

References 15 publications

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Conception of a 3D Metamaterial-Based Foundation for Static and Seismic Protection of Fuel Storage Tanks

Assessment of Structures Subjected to Accidental Actions Using Crisp and Uncertain Fragility Functions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About