Quantitative Risk Assessment and Evolution Trajectory of China’s Iron Ore Resource

Abstract

The resource security system is a complex system. Strategic mineral resource is of great importance to national security and economic development. Iron ore is one of the 24 strategic mineral resource determined by the Chinese government. Based on the broad connotation of resource security, we put forward the risk assessment model of resource security named 3E (Enduring, Economic, Environmental) model and establish a complete risk assessment index system for iron ore. In this paper, the entropy method is used to determine the weight of each index, we evaluate the comprehensive risk of iron ore from 2000 to 2016, and analyse the results of risk assessment in detail. The results show that the supply risk is on the rise, which has the greatest impact on the comprehensive risk. Moreover, the fluctuation of economic risk is more stable, and the environmental risk is decreasing. The comprehensive risk index of China’s iron ore increased firstly and then declined. From 2000 to 2007, it was a relatively low-risk period; from 2008 to 2010, the risk was increased; 2011-2013 was a high-risk period; and 2014 to 2016, there was a reduction in risk. In order to effectively control the risk of iron ore, this paper puts forward some suggestions from several aspects.