Quantitative risk assessment for future meteorological disasters

Tachiiri, Kaoru; Shinoda, Masato

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0365-5

Cited by 24 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 16 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The most noticeable change occurred in northern parts of Mongolia where increases in COEs are likely attributable to geographical features that directly influence the incursion of cold air from Siberia and Arctic in winter, resulting in extremely low surface air temperatures. Our results support the conclusions of Tachiiri and Shinoda (2012), who used modelling analysis to predict the highest frequency of dzud in northern provinces in the future. Moreover, Woo et al .…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Recently increased cold air outbreaks over Mongolia and their specific synoptic pattern

Munkhjargal

Shinoda

Iijima

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In recent years, extreme cold air outbreak events (COEs) in winter have tended to occur more frequently over the mid‐latitudes of Eurasia, including Mongolia, despite marked warming across the continent. In the 2000s, an increase in COEs contributed to huge losses of livestock throughout Mongolia, causing socioeconomic stagnation. This study diagnosed the interdecadal variability of the frequency of COEs during cold season (November–March) using observations from 70 meteorological stations in Mongolia by contrasting a past period (PP:1981–1999) and a recent period (RP:2000–2016). Then, this analysis was extended to characterize the synoptic pattern of each period using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data in terms of the ridge and trough system and cold advection. We defined a COE as an event having at least five continuous days with a daily average air temperature lower than minus one standard deviation from the daily climatology during cold season in 1981–2016. The results revealed that totally 112 COEs could be identified over Mongolia during 1981–2016 with a higher number of events (59) during the RP. Regionally, a slight increase in COEs was observed in the north, whereas no clear change was evident in the south. Composite analyses for each period demonstrated that a trough in the central Eurasian mid‐troposphere was deepened and southwestward advection of cold air enhanced during the RP, in comparison with the PP, which changed the wind direction over northern Mongolia from westerly to northwesterly. In addition, the number of snow cover days have increased slightly in the RP in northern Mongolia, likely acting as a favourable condition for low air temperatures with intensifying surface cooling. These findings suggest that a deepened trough over central Eurasia, strengthened northerly cold advection into Mongolia, and cooling from the snow‐covered surface are most likely to have resulted in the increased frequency of COEs overnorthern Mongolia in the RP.

show abstract

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Recently increased cold air outbreaks over Mongolia and their specific synoptic pattern

Munkhjargal

Shinoda

Iijima

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Multidisciplinary approaches to key linkages of complex natural and human systems have revealed that climate change impacts on such systems are often nonlinear, having a threshold or tipping point across which a catastrophic (and potentially nonresilient) change may occur in the system [see, e.g., Scheffer et al ., ]. For example, on the regional‐continental scale, such changes or thresholds are detected in the response of vegetation to drought [ Shinoda et al ., ], land‐surface to wind erosion or dust emission (i.e., threshold wind speed) [ Kurosaki et al ., ], and livestock mortality to dzud [ Tachiiri et al ., ; Tachiiri and Shinoda , ]. The satellite‐derived threshold wind speed was used to produce a novel semi‐real‐time wind erodibility (i.e., soil susceptibility to wind erosion) map available for a dust early warning system [ Kimura and Shinoda , ].…”

Section: Dryland Expansion Desertification and Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

Huang

et al. 2017

Reviews of Geophysics

638

331

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long‐term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere‐land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land‐sea and north‐south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948–2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.

show abstract

“…With the risk assessment method of natural disasters (Zhang and Li, 2007;Tachiiri, 2012), the technical routine of the risk assessment of sea ice disasters on oil platforms was established below (Fig. 3).…”

Section: Technical Routesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of sea ice disasters on fixed jacket platforms in Liaodong Bay

Yuan

Liu

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Sea ice disasters seriously threaten the structural safety of oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a risk assessment of sea ice disasters on oil platforms in the Bohai Sea. In this study, a risk assessment of sea ice disasters on fixed jacket platforms in Liaodong Bay, in the Bohai Sea, was performed in five steps. Firstly, the formation mechanisms of sea ice disasters were analyzed and the sources and modes of sea ice risks were summarized. Secondly, according to the calculation formulas of extreme ice force, dynamic ice force, and accumulated force, several ice indices such as thickness, motion, strength, period, and concentration were proposed as the hazard indices, and corresponding values were then assigned to the proposed indices based on ice conditions in the Bohai Sea. Thirdly, based on four structural failure modes – structural overturning by extreme ice force (Mode 1), structural fracture failure caused by dynamic ice force (Mode 2), the damage of facilities caused by dynamic ice force (Mode 3), and structural function failure caused by accumulated ice (Mode 4) – the structural vulnerability index, overturning index, dynamic index, ice-induced vibration index, and function index were proposed, and corresponding values were assigned to the structural vulnerability index of fixed jacket platforms in Liaodong Bay. Fourthly, the weight of each risk index was determined according to previously recorded sea ice disasters and accidents, and the sea ice risk was then calculated with the weighted synthetic index method. Finally, with the above index system and risk assessment methods, the risk assessment of sea ice disasters on 10 jacket platforms in three sea areas in Liaodong Bay was carried out. The analysis results showed that efficient sea ice prevention strategies could largely mitigate the sea ice-induced vibration-related risks of jacket platforms in Liaodong Bay. If steady-state vibration occurs (usually in front of the vertical legged structure) or the structural fundamental frequency is high, the structural vulnerability is significantly increased and the calculated risk levels are high. The sea ice risk assessment method can be applied in the design, operation, and management of other engineering structures in sea ice areas.

show abstract

Quantitative risk assessment for future meteorological disasters

Cited by 24 publications

References 16 publications

Recently increased cold air outbreaks over Mongolia and their specific synoptic pattern

Recently increased cold air outbreaks over Mongolia and their specific synoptic pattern

Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges

Risk assessment of sea ice disasters on fixed jacket platforms in Liaodong Bay

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About