Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the importation of dogs and cats worldwide

Abstract

SUMMARYJapan has been free from rabies since 1958. A strict import regimen has been adopted since 2004 consisting of identification of an animal with microchip, two-time rabies vaccination, neutralizing antibody titration test and a waiting period of 180 days. The present study aims to quantitatively assess the risk of rabies introduction into Japan through the international importation of dogs and cats and hence provide evidence-based recommendations to strengthen the current rabies prevention system. A stochastic scenario tree model was developed and simulations were run using @RISK. The probability of infection in a single dog or cat imported into Japan is estimated to be 2·16 × 10−9 [90% prediction interval (PI) 6·65 × 10−11–6·48 × 10−9]. The number of years until the introduction of a rabies case is estimated to be 49 444 (90% PI 19 170–94 641) years. The current import regimen is effective in maintaining the very low risk of rabies introduction into Japan and responding to future changes including increases in import level and rabies prevalence in the world. However, non-compliance or smuggling activities could substantially increase the risk of rabies introduction. Therefore, policy amendment which could promote compliance is highly recommended. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the waiting period could be reduced to 90 days and the requirement for vaccination could be reduced to a single vaccination, but serological testing should not be stopped.

Evaluating the contact rate between companion dogs during dog walking and the practices towards potential cases of rabies among dog owners in Japan

“…Given that Japan is geographically isolated by the sea, rabies would most likely enter the country via the international importation of dogs and cats where there are approximately 10,000 dogs and cats imported each year (Kwan, Sugiura, Hosoi, Yamada, & Snary, ). There are other potential rabies entry pathways, for example, via fishing boat, passenger ferry and shipping containers, which are considered to be of minor risk due to the very small number of dogs and cats imported through these pathways and the results of a previous quantitative risk assessment (Kwan, Ogawa, Yamada, & Sugiura, ).…”

“…There are other potential rabies entry pathways, for example, via fishing boat, passenger ferry and shipping containers, which are considered to be of minor risk due to the very small number of dogs and cats imported through these pathways and the results of a previous quantitative risk assessment (Kwan, Ogawa, Yamada, & Sugiura, ). Although the risks of re‐introduction of rabies into Japan have been quantitatively assessed as very low, the field experiences in Western Europe demonstrated that incursion of travel‐associated rabies into a rabies‐free country is indeed possible, particularly due to illegal importation of pets (Kwan et al, ; Kwan, Sugiura et al, ; Ribadeau‐Dumas et al, ). In 2008, France experienced a rabies outbreak involving three pet dogs where the primary case was illegally introduced from Morocco by a dog owner and eventually led to two local secondary cases (Allibert et al, ).…”

Benefit-cost analysis of the policy of mandatory annual rabies vaccination of domestic dogs in rabies-free Japan

“…2.57 × 10 −5 , was input into the relevant chance nodes of the decision tree, while the effect of any increase in the risk of rabies introduction, e.g. illegal importation, was tested in scenario analysis described below [5]. There are potentially other rabies entry pathways, e.g.…”

In Reply to Drs Joob and Wiwanitkit

“…Because the availability of intravenous fluid flow warmers in emergency medical services and mountain rescue teams is very limited, the administration of warmed fluids in prehospital settings seems not to be feasible. 3,4 Moreover, some warmers deliver the appropriate fluid temperature at slow flow only. 5 Thus, attempts to achieve fast volume replacement may lead to a further drop in body temperature.…”