Quantitative risk modelling in the offshore petroleum industry: integration of human and organizational factors

Abstract

In-depth investigations of major offshore accidents show that technical, human, operational and organizational risk influencing factors (RIFs) all have crucial effects on the accident sequences. Nonetheless, the current generation of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) in the offshore petroleum industry has focused on technical safety systems while applications and findings in the non-technical fields are to a large extent missing. There have also been parallel efforts to develop methods for the formal inclusion of human and organizational factors (HOFs) into QRA. Examples from the offshore petroleum industry include ORIM, BORA, Risk_OMT, etc. This paper presents a review of QRA models that have been developed for the offshore petroleum industry, allowing HOFs integrated in a systematical way. The main intention of this study is to summarize and evaluate how these QRA models effectively seek answers to the key questions in this line of research: (i) What are the RIFs that affect the risk? (ii) How do these factors influence the risk? (iii) How much do these factors contribute to the risk? Further, the weakness and challenges of the reviewed models are pinpointed based on a substantial data set of actual leaks that have occurred in the Norwegian sector. Following the close scrutiny of these models, their progress, limitations, validity and suitability are addressed and discussed in detail. Based on these insights, future work is suggested to enhance and improve the QRA framework for including the installation specific conditions of technical and non-technical RIFs in a more comprehensive and defensible way.

Building safety in the offshore petroleum industry: Development of risk-based major hazard risk indicators at a national level

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Integrating Human Barriers in Human Reliability Analysis: A New Model for the Energy Sector

“…While these methods proved their value in predicting human error, they usually fail to consider the active role of workers (e.g., their behaviors and attitudes) and the psychosocial dynamics involved in working performance. In this regard, the crucial role played by human factors in safety was proven by several studies and across different working sectors (for a review, see [ 9 ]). In line with this assumption, French et al [ 10 ] pointed out that to further extend and improve HRA methods, workers’ cognitive and affective processes and organizational factors influencing performance (e.g., safety culture, safety climate) should be included.…”

A framework for rapid virtual prototyping: a case study with the Gunnerus research vessel

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