Quantitative Trend, Sensitivity and Contribution Analyses of Reference Evapotranspiration in some Arid Environments under Climate Change

Nouri, Milad; Homaee, Mehdi; Bannayan, Mohammad

doi:10.1007/s11269-017-1638-1

Cited by 57 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Physically, RH had negative correlation with ET [40], especially with the reference and potential evapotranspiration [5,64,77,78]. In this study, the correlation coefficient between monthly RH and ET exhibited different quality correlations.…”

Section: Analysis Of the Et Factorsmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…The spatial variations in influential factors and temporal changes in climatic conditions had different effects on ET based on different thresholds associated with different spatiotemporal conditions. Therefore, changes in ET over large, complex areas should be studied under different temporal and spatial conditions, and studies should focus on how changes in spatiotemporal factors influence ET [77].…”

Section: Analysis Of the Et Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Dynamic Spatiotemporal Changes in Actual Evapotranspiration and Its Associated Factors in the Pearl River Basin Based on MOD16

Zhang¹,

Chen²

2017

Water

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Abstract:Evapotranspiration is an important part of the hydrological cycle, surface energy balance and global climate system. Due to spatial heterogeneity, the trends in actual evapotranspiration (ET) and its associated factors vary in different regions. Because direct measurements of ET are limited over large areas, remote sensing provides an efficient method of ET spatial analysis, and standard data products are available at the global scale. This study uses the monthly MOD16 ET dataset and daily meteorological data to analyze the dynamic spatiotemporal changes in ET and its associated factors in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) from 2000 to 2014. The results of the study are as follows.(1) Over time and space, annual ET exhibited a slight increasing trend from 2000 to 2014, with an average value of approximately 946.56 mm/a. ET considerably varied at the monthly and seasonal scales, and in July displayed the highest monthly ET of approximately 119.57 mm, accounting for 36.37% of the annual ET. (2) ET displayed obvious spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, the west was a low-ET region, and moderate and high ET values were interspersed in the central and eastern PRB. Moreover, the rate of change of ET ranged from −13.99 mm/a to 12.81 mm/a in space, and 46.25% of the basin exhibited an increasing trend. (3) Dynamic changes in ET were mainly associated with temperature and relative humidity (RH). Additionally, energy-related elements and wind speed were positively correlated with ET, and temperature was the most influential factor of ET in some months (February-March and September-November). RH was the most important factor in other months but negatively correlated with ET in June and July. Affected by the actual environmental condition, qualitative changes were observed in the correlation between RH and ET in different months. The positive and negative spatial correlations between ET and its associated factors changed in different regions and in different months, and the changes mainly occurred from northwest to southwest.

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Section: Analysis Of the Et Factorsmentioning

confidence: 65%

Section: Analysis Of the Et Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Dynamic Spatiotemporal Changes in Actual Evapotranspiration and Its Associated Factors in the Pearl River Basin Based on MOD16

Zhang¹,

Chen²

2017

Water

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“…In the context of climate change, there is much uncertainty regarding the changes in ET 0 and actual ET as a result of the complex nonlinear relationship between ET and climatic factors. There are large differences among the results obtained in studies that investigated the effects of climatic factors on ET (Debnath et al, ; Estévez et al, ; Nouri et al, ). In China, in terms of ET 0 studies, Wang et al () indicated that a change in wind speed was the main cause of the decrease of ET 0 from 1961 to 2013, followed by the changes in daily maximum temperature (T max ) and sunshine hours.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration, Pan Evaporation, and Actual Evapotranspiration and Their Influencing Factors in the North China Plain During 1998–2005

Liu

Chen

Pan

2019

Earth and Space Science

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Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in both energy and water balances. Determining changes in the different types of ET and their influencing factors under climate change is crucial to fully understand the mechanisms controlling ET and regional water cycles. Based on ET and meteorological data measured during 1998–2005 at the Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the variation of reference ET (ET0), pan evaporation (Epan), and lysimeter ET (the actual ET, Elys) were estimated. Together with a Mann‐Kendall trend test, correlation and sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the effects of climatic factors, crop coefficients (Kc), and leaf area index (LAI) on different types of ET. During 1998–2005, precipitation presented an upward trend at all time scales, and average temperature (Ta), minimum temperature (Tmin), relative humidity, Epan, and ET0 exhibited downward trends. Elys displayed a downward trend at the daily scale and an upward trend at monthly and annual scales. The correlation analysis indicated that Epan and Elys were significantly positively correlated with all climatic factors except precipitation and relative humidity. The sensitivity analysis revealed that except for relative humidity, the influence of the other climatic factors on ET0 was positive. The highest sensitivity was found for relative humidity, followed by Ta, maximum temperature (Tmax), and Tmin. An analysis of the influence of Kc and LAI on the actual ET indicated that with an increase of Kc and LAI, the actual water demand of crops also displayed an upward trend.

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“…In many environmental applications, such a hydrological [12,[26][27][28] or evapotranspiration [29][30][31][32][33][34] studies, or health risk research [35], different sensitivity coefficients are ascertained, depending on the objective of the research. A curve construction as a sensitivity assessment is the easiest and most basic method for plotting relative changes in a dependent variable in relation to independent variable(s).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Grigorieva

2020

Atmosphere

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Climate is a key factor in agriculture, but we are unable to adequately predict future climates. Although some studies have addressed the short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture, few of them specifically focused on the analysis of its thermal component. Climatic regions with an extreme thermal range are a special case, as seasonal contrasts complicate the picture. Based on the above, the purpose of the paper is twofold. First, we review methods and indices used for the estimation of changes in the thermal component of the climate and demonstrate the usefulness of a sensitivity assessment methodology that gives some indication of the likely spatial extent of areas of high or low sensitivity to climate change and the size of the potential impact of that change, which is specifically beneficial in regions with high temperature extremes. Secondly, we constructed a composite indicator, called the Growing Degree Day Sensitivity Index (GDDSI) and defined as the percentage change in Growing Degree Day (GDD) for warming scenarios +1, +2 and +3 °C. GDDs were calculated for threshold base air temperatures of 0, 5, 10 and 15 °C, and a high-temperature limit of 30 °C. A GDD sensitivity analysis was applied to the thermally extreme climate of the Russian Far East. We analyzed the data of 50 weather stations across the study region over the period 1966–2017. The results show a strong GDDSI north-to-south gradient. In most cases, the sensitivity does not increase significantly as the warming rate increases. The higher the base threshold, the higher the sensitivity: GDDs with a threshold at 15 °C had the highest sensitivity in the far north of the study area where conditions are currently marginal for crop growth. The sensitivity analysis circumnavigates the difficulty of uncertainty in knowing what future climate to expect and informs planning decisions. The mapped results are useful for identifying areas of high sensitivity to climate change as well as the magnitude of the potential impact of that change.

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Quantitative Trend, Sensitivity and Contribution Analyses of Reference Evapotranspiration in some Arid Environments under Climate Change

Cited by 57 publications

References 36 publications

Analysis of Dynamic Spatiotemporal Changes in Actual Evapotranspiration and Its Associated Factors in the Pearl River Basin Based on MOD16

Analysis of Dynamic Spatiotemporal Changes in Actual Evapotranspiration and Its Associated Factors in the Pearl River Basin Based on MOD16

Analysis of Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration, Pan Evaporation, and Actual Evapotranspiration and Their Influencing Factors in the North China Plain During 1998–2005

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

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