Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of İzmit (NW Turkey): a sedimentary basin under control of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Dolu, Erdal; Gökaşan, Erkan; Merıç, Engin; Ergi̇n, Mustafa; Görüm, Tolga; Tur, Hüseyin; Ecevitoğlu, Berkan; Avşar, Niyazi; Görmüş, Muhittin; Batuk, Fatmagül; Tok, Buğser; Çetin, Oktay

doi:10.1007/s00367-007-0057-3

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The possibility that a seismic gap close a Kinematics (SS = strike slip; N = normal); computed magnitude, strike and dip-slip rate; length (L); depth (H); width (W); focal mechanism; last and penultimate events ages with their maximum expected magnitude (M s ), computed by instrumental or historical data, otherwise by fault geometry [Wells and Coppersmith, 1994]. Reference numbers refer to (1) Flerit et al [2003], (2) Ergintav et al [2014], (3) Meade et al [2002], (4) , (5) Dolu et al [2007], (6) Rockwell et al [2002], (7) Tibi et al [2001], (8) Klinger et al [2003], ( to failure exists near Istanbul motivated the MARSite European Integrated Project that is aimed at mitigating seismic risk. This study contributes an earthquake rupture forecast that includes multisegment ruptures up to M w~8 .0 that could affect Istanbul and surroundings.…”

Section: Citationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kinematics (SS = strike slip; N = normal); computed magnitude, strike and dip‐slip rate; length (L); depth (H); width (W); focal mechanism; last and penultimate events ages with their maximum expected magnitude ( M s ), computed by instrumental or historical data, otherwise by fault geometry [ Wells and Coppersmith , ]. Reference numbers refer to (1) Flerit et al [], (2) Ergintav et al [], (3) Meade et al [], (4) Barka [], (5) Dolu et al [], (6) Rockwell et al [], (7) Tibi et al [], (8) Klinger et al [], (9) Parson [], (10) Hergert and Heidbach [], (11) Armijo et al [], (12) Le Pichon et al [, ], (13) Carton et al [], (14) Laigle et al [], (15) Bulut et al [], (16) Ambraseys [], (17) Armijo et al [, ]; (18) Taymaz et al [] and McKenzie []; (19) Reilinger et al [], (20) Guidoboni and Comastri [], (21) Meghraoui et al [] and Aksoy et al [], (22) Motagh et al [], (23) Altunel et al []; (24) Rockwell et al [], (25) Gasperini et al [], (26) Yaltirak [] and McNeill et al [], (27) Ambraseys and Jackson [], (28) Barka [], (29) Ambraseys and Zatopek [], (30) Canitez [], (31) Palyvos et al [], (32) Straub et al [], (33) Ambraseys [], (34) Pucci et al [], (35) Pucci et al [], (36) Pantosti et al [], (37) Kondo et al [], (38) Barka and Kadinsky‐Cade [], (39) Ketin [], (40) Doğan et al [], (41) Guidoboni et al [], (42) Saroglu et al [], (43) Barka and Kuscu [], (44) Kuşçu et al [], (45) Selim and Tüysüz [] and Selim et al [], (46) Kürçer et al [], and (47) Kurtuluş and Canbay […”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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M ≥ 7 earthquake rupture forecast and time‐dependent probability for the sea of Marmara region, Turkey

et al. 2016

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We forecast time‐independent and time‐dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault segmentation model. We also augment time‐dependent Brownian passage time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate Mw > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher‐magnitude ruptures over some segments of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different Mw = 7.0 to Mw = 8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30 year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT + ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30 year probability, with a Poisson value of 29% and a time‐dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30 year Poisson probability of M > 7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a twofold probability gain (ratio time dependent to time independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

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Section: Citationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

M ≥ 7 earthquake rupture forecast and time‐dependent probability for the sea of Marmara region, Turkey

et al. 2016

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“…Previous studies in theİzmit Bay area indicate a large range on the thickness of the sedimentary cover and suggest that theİ zmit Bay has developed since the Pliocene, and that very thick basin sediments were deposited in the bay during its evolution (e.g. Barka & Kadinsky-Cade 1988;Alpar & Yaltırak 2002;Dolu et al 2007). Akartuna (1968) estimates a total thickness exceeding 500 m based on a geological evaluation.…”

Section: G E O L O G I C a L S E T T I N G A N D P R E V I O U S W O R Kmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of 3-D basin structures in the İzmit Bay area (Turkey) by single-station microtremor and gravimetric methods

Özalaybey¹,

Zor²,

Ergintav³

et al. 2011

Geophysical Journal International

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S U M M A R YWe investigate 3-D basin structures and site resonance frequencies in theİzmit Bay area of Turkey by new geophysical surveys based on 239 single station microtremor and 405-point gravity measurements. A fundamental resonance frequency map of theİzmit Bay was produced from the main peak in the horizontal-to-vertical component spectral ratio (HVSR) of microtremors. The HVSR analysis of the microtremor data reveals single, double, broad peaked or no peak type HVSR curves varying in accordance with the surface geology and spatial extent of the three basins present in theİzmit Bay area. In the deepest sections of thė Izmit, Gölcük and Derince basins of theİzmit Bay, the fundamental resonance frequencies are dominantly 0.24-0.30 Hz. These resonance frequencies should be taken into consideration along with higher mode frequencies to construct earthquake resistant structures in theİzmit Bay area. The 3-D gravimetric bedrock depth map of theİzmit basin shows that the basin has an asymmetric shape with its deepest section coinciding with the surface trace of the North Anatolian Fault. The northern shoulder of the basin has a gentle dip on the Kocaeli Peneplain side and the southern shoulder is much steeper, and it is bounded by the Samanlı Mountains. We derive a power-law relationship that correlates the fundamental site resonance frequencies with the sedimentary cover thickness obtained from the gravity and shear wave velocity data in theİzmit Bay. We use this relationship to estimate bedrock depths beneath Gölcük and Derince basins. Our estimation of maximum basin depths is 1400 m for theİzmit and is 800 m for the Gölcük and Derince basins. Finally, we have analysed a converted Sp phase from a local earthquake recording made at site CMP to calculate and verify the sediment thickness estimations obtained from our gravimetric and microtremor analyses. This calculation shows close agreement with that of the gravimetric and microtremor results. Our results show that the basins in theİzmit Bay area have a very thick sedimentary cover with very low shear velocities underlined by hard bedrock, forming a sharp impedance contrast. We anticipate that these results will be a key contribution to the quantitative assessment of seismic hazard for thė Izmit Bay area before the occurrence of strong earthquakes in the Marmara region.

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“…Okay et al, 2000;Gö kaşan et al, 2001;Le Pichon et al, 2001, 2003Yaltırak, 2002;Alpar and Yaltırak, 2002;Elmas, 2003;Yigitbaş et al, 2004;Gü rer et al, 2003Gü rer et al, , 2006Dolu et al, 2007;Koral, 2007;Gü rbü z and Gü rer, 2008b;Schwab et al, 2009;Leroy et al, 2009). According to the latest detailed studies in the study area, the Izmit-Sapanca Corridor developed as an asymmetrical pullapart basin in the late Pliocene and Lake Sapanca originated as a different pull-apart basin in the Izmit-Sapanca asymmetric pull-apart basin by the cross-basin fault in the Middle Pleistocene (Gü rbü z and Gü rer, 2008bGü rer, , 2009.…”

Section: Geological Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Science versus myth: was there a connection between the Marmara Sea and Lake Sapanca?

Gürbüz

Leroy

2010

J Quaternary Science

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The existence of an alternative strait between the Black and Marmara Seas, east of today's Istanbul Strait, on the route of Izmit Gulf-Lake Sapanca-Lower Sakarya Valley, was already claimed at the end of the 19th century and has also been considered in several recent studies. Firstly, in historical documents over the last 2500 years, some natural and artificial waterways between the Marmara Sea and Lake Sapanca have been reported. Secondly, according to the present geomorphological research between the Izmit Gulf and Lake Sapanca, the gutter-like morphology, which was formed by the tectonics of the North Anatolian Fault in the centre of the plain, is suggested as a suitable geomorphic feature for a possible waterway between the gulf and the lake. Thirdly, the Izmit Plain that lies between the Izmit Gulf and Lake Sapanca is studied in this paper through its sedimentology. The facies associations of the basin-fill deposits are examined here through the lithological descriptions and fossil assemblages in nine cores drilled in the plain. All these data suggest that the shoreline in the Quaternary did not lie much further landward from its current position, that the inner part of the plain was covered by a lagoon/coastal-swamp environment and that a connection may have existed at an unknown time (perhaps for the last time during the Middle/Late Pleistocene) with perhaps only partial reuse during the last millennia in the course of catastrophic seismic movements and consecutive floods.

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Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of İzmit (NW Turkey): a sedimentary basin under control of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Cited by 16 publications

References 48 publications

M ≥ 7 earthquake rupture forecast and time‐dependent probability for the sea of Marmara region, Turkey

M ≥ 7 earthquake rupture forecast and time‐dependent probability for the sea of Marmara region, Turkey

Investigation of 3-D basin structures in the İzmit Bay area (Turkey) by single-station microtremor and gravimetric methods

Science versus myth: was there a connection between the Marmara Sea and Lake Sapanca?

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