Quitters from Hospitality Industry: Misfit or Just Looking for Better Conditions?

Abstract

After the COVID-19 crisis, a considerable contraction emerged in the labor supply of the hospitality industry. This investigation aims to identify some factors that justify the intention behind an ex-worker in tourism changing their occupation. In particular, we investigate if the change is motivated by skill mismatches or by a willingness to find more stable and rewarding jobs. Several datasets were combined to obtain multilevel information on all the unemployed from the hospitality industry between September 2022 and August 2023. A probit model was used to estimate the intention to change occupation, considering different personal, regional and occupational characteristics. Our results demonstrate that, for overqualified individuals, the intention to change occupation is motivated by trying to find better conditions and not by the mismatch per se. In contrast, the underqualified are significantly affected by the mismatch, which make them more vulnerable. Generally, movers are significantly influenced by the odds of having higher job stability and better wages (especially higher overtime premium) and are more frequently younger and higher educated individuals. Therefore, employers and policymakers should promote better wages, job stability, training, and career progression opportunities to reduce turnover in the hospitality industry.