2020
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227437
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Quo vadis Pantanal? Expected precipitation extremes and drought dynamics from changing sea surface temperature

Abstract: Climate change poses a critical threat to the Pantanal, the largest wetland in the world. Models indicate an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events and extended periods of drought. These changes can amplify consequences for Pantanal's ecological functioning, which has already experienced intensive human modification of its hydrological system and environmental health. The present study analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of rainfall and resulting extremes in the Brazilian area of the … Show more

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Cited by 79 publications
(77 citation statements)
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“…Since 1980, average temperatures there have risen by 2 °C and humidity has fallen by 25%, according to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This year saw the worst drought recorded in the Pantanal in 60 years (see go.nature.com/2jpdubc), induced by unusually warm waters in the North Atlantic 4 . The wet season saw 57% less rain than normal.…”
Section: Growing Riskmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Since 1980, average temperatures there have risen by 2 °C and humidity has fallen by 25%, according to the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This year saw the worst drought recorded in the Pantanal in 60 years (see go.nature.com/2jpdubc), induced by unusually warm waters in the North Atlantic 4 . The wet season saw 57% less rain than normal.…”
Section: Growing Riskmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We used a data set of 70 years (1941 to 2013) for calculated an index based on rainfall data: the standardized pluviometric drought index or SPDI (Pita, 2001;Thielen et al, 2020). The SPDI is an index based on cumulative monthly precipitation anomalies and is used to identify the duration and the severity of both, drought (Alexander et al, 2006;Thielen et al, 2020) and humidity (Thielen et al, 2020). For the SPDI calculation, the equation used was:…”
Section: Precipitation Analysesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The ̅̅̅̅̅̅ is the average value of the accumulated precipitation anomalies of all the months in the data series. The σAPA is the standard deviation of the accumulated precipitation anomalies of all the months in the series (Thielen et al, 2020). and the negative values indicates dry conditions (Table 1).…”
Section: Precipitation Analysesmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…This drought event initially began with the occurrence of marine heat waves in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (Thielen et al 2021). Modelling studies have predicted a significant increase in the occurrence of severe and prolonged drought events in the Pantanal during the near future, triggered by warming sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere (Thielen et al 2021;Thielen et al 2020).…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%