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Abstract

This research is dedicated to the study of brain neuronspecific markers and indicators of brain damage outcome. Purpose of the study: To examine the prognostic role of serum NSE as the predictor of unfavorable outcome in traumatic and vascular brain damages. Methods: Prospective cohort study with 219 patients. Blood serum neuronspecific markers (NSE,S100B),acid-base state, blood gas were derived during the period of observation: upon enrolment, on the 3-rd, 5-th and 7-th days spent in the hospital in the intensive care unit. Results: The most significant risk factor of unfavorable outcome is the marker NSE with the cut point 12,5 ng|ml. The results of the analysis indicate the presence of a statistically significant direct relationship between NSE> 12.5 ng / ml and LDH, compared to other variables, 3.7 times more often; with an increase in blood lactate more than 4,1 mmol/l almost 3,8 times; with GCS 13 points below by 1,7 times; S100≥0,2 by 2,8 times; with an increase of PCO2 <38,5 it was documented more than 3 times often. The measure of certainty the resulting model by the pseudo R2 Nagelkerke criterion-250.6; logLikelihood -154.04 which corresponds to the excellent predictive ability of the mathematical model. The best predictive value of the model is a cut-off point of 88.89%, AuROC-0.809; Se-51.59%; Sp-95.06%; NPV-55.80%; PPV-94.20%. This model can be used to predict the outcome in patients with acute cerebral pathology.