Race and the Recall: Racial and Ethnic Polarization in the California Recall Election

Abstract

In the 2003 recall election in California, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante received more than 1.25 million fewer votes in the replacement election than votes cast against the recall of Gray Davis. A much smaller group voted "yes" on the recall but voted for Bustamante. The principal underlying explanation is racial and ethnic polarization. Using L.A. Times exit poll data, we compare the characteristics of voters who displayed the two unusual behavioral patterns with those who voted in more conventional ways. We find that Latinos and African Americans are far less likely than non-Hispanic whites and Asian Americans to have defected from Bustamante given a "no" vote on the recall, and far more likely to have voted for Bustamante given a potentially strategic "yes" vote on the recall. The patterns of defection are consistent with racial polarization on Proposition 54, lending further credence to our claim that race and ethnicity persists as an important factor in vote choice, even in environments with a history of minority electoral success.

Political Homophily and Collaboration in Regional Planning Networks

“…We also consider racial/ethnic composition as a second demographic category. Numerous scholars and observers have documented the distinctive patterns of political behavior—particularly voting—by California's racial and ethnic minority groups (e.g., see Barreto and Ramirez ; Segura and Fraga ; Tolbert and Hero ). These studies find that while minorities are, on average, more liberal and more likely to support Democratic candidates and policy positions than white voters, there are important exceptions to this general tendency (Barreto and Ramirez ) .…”

The Role of Candidate Choice in the California Recall Election

“…The relatively large amount of scholarly interest in the recall election (Alvarez, Goodrich, Hall, Kiewiet, & Sled, 2004;Baldassare, 2005;Barreto, & Ramírez, 2004;Bedolla, & Uhlaner, 2004;Bowler & Cain, 2004;H. E. Brady, 2004;Segura & Fraga, 2008;Stone & Datta, 2004) suggests that it qualifies as one of these transcendent events.…”

Forced Migration, Staying Minorities, and New Societies: Evidence from Post-war Czechoslovakia

“…On the other hand, there are also studies of assimilation policies suggesting that in the face of discrimination, immigrants may invest less in assimilation and retreat into their ethnic enclaves. 42 Ethnic polarization can in turn spur conflict, political polarization, and segregated voting (Montalvo and Reynal-Querol, 2005;Segura and Fraga, 2008).…”