Race, class, or both? Responses to candidate characteristics in Canada, the UK, and the US

Abstract

Research suggests that voters use identity markers to infer information about candidates for office. Yet politicians have various markers that often point in conflicting directions, and it is unclear how citizens respond to competing signalsespecially outside of a few highly stigmatized groups in the US. Given the relevance of these issues for electoral behavior and patterns of representation, this article examines the impact of intersectional identities and less intensely stigmatized markers in Canada, the UK, and the US. It does so using a survey experiment that varies the race (white/East Asian) and class background (higher/lower) of a candidate for office. I then compare results across the cases, examining willingness to vote for the candidate as well as assumptions about his ideological proximity, relatability, and potential contributions. In doing so, I build from past research suggesting that voter ideology likely shapes reactions to candidates from disadvantaged backgrounds. Results suggest that marginalized identity markers have relatively widespread effects among leftists and (to a lesser extent) centrists, but that, outside of the Canadian left, class seems to matter more than race. Overlapping marginalized identities, in turn, had little impact, with the lower-class white and East-Asian profiles eliciting similar reactions.

The Economic Backgrounds of Politicians

“…However, the voter bias hypothesis has not found clear support in modern empirical research. Across countries as varied as Argentina, Austria, Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and across a range of measures of economic backgrounds, both observational and experimental studies fail to find evidence that voters prefer politicians from more privileged economic backgrounds (Adams et al 2020, Albaugh 2020, Bonica 2020, Campbell & Cowley 2014, Carnes 2018, Carnes & Lupu 2016a, Gift & Lastra-Anadón 2018, Griffin et al 2019, Horiuchi et al 2018, Hoyt & DeShields 2020, Kevins 2021, Sevi et al 2020, Vivyan et al 2020). On the contrary, researchers more often find that voters see less advantaged candidates as warmer and more relatable, and voters consistently report that they would prefer to see more working-class politicians in office (Carnes & Lupu 2022b).…”

Primary Barriers to Working Class Representation

“…Related research measuring candidate social class on the basis of wealth or family background, rather than current occupation, is consistent with these findings. A range of studies show null or even positive effects of a working class background on voter approval in the U.S. and other democracies (Campbell and Cowley 2014; Carnes and Sadin 2015; Kevins 2021; Griffin et al 2020; Hoyt and DeShields 2021; Vivyan et al 2020).…”

“…Former workers may even hold an advantage over lifelong white-collar candidates; their biography would match a widely resonant American cultural narrative of upward mobility through individual effort. Some studies suggest voters are more likely to support candidates who came from humble childhood circumstances (Carnes and Sadin 2015; Kevins 2021). Finally, the work-related challenges that working class candidates face while campaigning—unpredictable work schedules or potential financial hardship from taking time off to campaign—could dim the electoral prospects for current workers in comparison with former workers.…”

Projection in the Face of Centrism: Voter Inferences About Candidates' Party Affiliation in Low‐Information Contexts

“…Across the treatment groups, the candidate was presented without a party label, and respondents were then asked to record assumptions about partisanship that they might have made. This allows us to investigate projection patterns across three countries where race and class are liable to have varying political salience (see e.g., Kevins, 2021; Medeiros & Noël, 2014). We thus expand on existing research on projection onto politicians (e.g., Conover & Feldman, 1982; Fulton & Gershon, 2018; Lerman & Sadin, 2016; Piston et al, 2018), looking beyond the United States and the potential divide between projection onto White and racialized candidates for office.…”

“…To assess these hypotheses, we fielded a two‐by‐two factorial vignette experiment in Canada ( n = 1,352), the United Kingdom ( n = 1,403), and the United States ( n = 2,236). Survey data was collected by Qualtrics via their Internet panels, with respondents quota sampled based on gender and age brackets to reflect census population demographics (see Kevins, 2021, for further discussion). Table S1.1 in the online supporting information provides full details on the sample.…”