Low altitude small target group has the special motion characteristics of orderly as a whole and flexibly as individuals. The performances of traditional target tracking algorithms (such as centroid tracking, geometric centre tracking, etc.) decrease obviously when the group outline changes. Hence in this paper, a robust tracking algorithm for target group with dynamic outline is studied. Aiming at the two key issues of group division and equivalent tracking point estimation, a robust group division algorithm, which can maintain the stability of group division results under any reference point selection, is firstly introduced. Then, on this basis, a new optimal tracking point estimation method is proposed by introducing the group structure into the likelihood function. The simulation results show that this proposed method can effectively improve the robustness of low altitude small target group tracking in the scene of group merging and group splitting. INDEX TERMS Dynamic outlines, equivalent point estimation, group division, group tracking.