This paper presents a new approach to the study of terrorist behaviour and argues that a framework based on Prospect Theory can provide novel insights on the understanding of the terrorist mind-set. Such a framework allows different pathways to become a terrorist and although individual decisions are studied, the model also takes into account environmental factors. By changing these environmental factors and/or framing the choice differently, PT also shows how the terrorist group and/or a charismatic leader can influence the individual's whether or not to turn to terrorism. Having a clear conceptual framework is a first crucial step towards comprehension and in the case of terrorism, towards detection and/or prevention. In this way, the PT framework can also contribute significantly to counter-terrorism policy and can guide the budgetary means in efficient way.
INTRODUCTIONThe events of 9/11, the bombings in Madrid and London and more recently, the attacks in Paris, Nice, Brussels, Berlin and Quebec make it painfully clear that terrorism is no longer a remote event for the Western world. Hence, also the number of academic papers studying the concept has snowballed the last decade trying to understand the phenomenon. In order to effectively reduce terrorism and to efficiently use our limited budgetary means it is indeed crucial to comprehend the terrorist's reasoning. As Hoffman (2002, p. 306) notes "knowing your enemy is a cardinal rule in warfare". Will we increase the probability of detection and interception by increasing the budget for internal security or will we invest more in de-radicalization programs? In order to optimize our counterterrorism policy and to allocate our resources efficiently, we need a clear conceptual framework. Literature on terrorism abounds with different models suggesting different causes and determinants. The purpose of this paper is not just to add to this list but rather to present a unifying framework.