Since the beginning of recorded history, radical innovations have always reshaped the world. At the opening of the 21st century, radical technologies, once rare and unusual occurrences, are taking place at ever increasing rates. At the same time, the combination of incremental innovation based on older technologies and radical technologies are forming ever increasing complex networks that are more rapidly reshaping the world. Understanding the current direction and trends in technology requires an understanding of their effects on, and relationship to, global development trends. The pioneers Kondratieff and Shumpeter, and later Anderson and Tushman, have described a theory of technological cycles related to industrial and economic cycles. However, in the current context of globalization, industrial and economic cycles can be placed in a new and more comprehensive global context that demonstrates that technological development cycles are more related to the larger macro stages in the history of globalization than to economic cycles. This paper proposes that a new framework for understanding the development of technology can emerge from an deeper understanding of the stages of development of the global network that has linked the economies of the world for the past 22 centuries.
I. DEFINITIONSTechnology -often called the mechanical arts or applied science [1], had its origins in tool building. Later evolutions related to travel including the wheel and axle applied to carriages, and ship design, as well as other fields such as agriculture, warfare, improvements to materials (especially metals), and manufacturing.Science based technology -that displaced tacit or empirical technology, has its origins in the scientific breakthroughs of the industrial revolutions [1]. Technology and science took separate paths of development until the mid 18th century when scientific concepts began to be applied to improvements in technology. Until that point in history, technology had greater effects on science than science did on technology [2][3].Global network-created initially by the demand for trade and the movement of goods between civilizations, over the past 22 centuries lead to the creation of a physical infrastructure that now wraps the earth. This infrastructure has developed the capability to facilitate the rapid and continuous flow of people, goods and information around the world necessary to sustain the global economy and human society.Stages in the Network -Identifying the stages of evolution in the development of the network is dependent on the dominant technology, the patterns of connections, the amount of flows and the speed of the flow.
II. INTRODUCTIONThe unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 ushered in a new stage in the evolution of global development patterns, accelerating growth in the world economy and the role of technology in human society. We live in a period of transition as dramatic and sweeping changes erase the patterns that marked the 20th century and give rise to the patterns that will mark ...
