Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity

Abstract

Abstract. According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic change. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We rely on rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. Our analysis yields that negative transitory shocks lead to significant democratic change.A transitory 10 percent drop in income is followed by an improvement in democracy scores of 9 percentage points, and by an increase in the probability of a transition to democracy of 13 percentage points.

Corruption and political stability: Does the youth bulge matter?

“…They find a negative effect of income growth on countries' political risk. Another stream in the literature shows that economic shocks cause instability and regime transitions (see the two seminal papers by Ciccone, 2011 andBurke andLeigh, 2010). Using the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, Aidt and Leon (2015) show that riots (which are more likely in places with many unemployed young people) play an important moderating role in this nexus.…”

Climate and the slave trade

“…Recent work, then, has used natural experiments such as the eradication of endemic diseases (Bleakley, 2007) or variation over time in temperature and rainfall (Brückner and Ciccone, 2011;Dell et al, 2012). Abrupt and persistent changes in climate have precipitated economic collapse through lowered agricultural productivity, depopulation, the decline of cities and the weakening of states (Chaney, 2013;DeMenocal et al, 2001;Diamond, 2005;Haug et al, 2003;Hornbeck, 2012;Weiss and Bradley, 2001).…”

Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?

“…7 Other country-level studies report results that are broadly consistent with the original findings of Miguel et al (2004) and Burke et al (2009). Brückner and Ciccone (2011) examine the destabilization of non-democratic regimes and find that these typically violent transitions are more likely during hot and dry periods . Couttenier and Soubeyran (2013) employ the basic model used in Burke et al (2009) but use the Palmer Drought Severity Index as the independent variable, finding that civil conflict for the period 1957-2005 is more likely when water availability is low, and that this result remains statistically different from zero under the battery of tests proposed by Buhaug (2010).…”