Rainfall, Agricultural Output and Persistent Democratization

Abstract

We examine the effect of rainfall on agricultural output and democratization in the world's most agricultural countries. As in the agricultural economics literature, we find that the relationship between rainfall and agricultural output has an inverted U-shape, as agriculture is harmed by both droughts and very wet conditions. We also find the effect of rainfall on agricultural output to be transitory. The relationship between rainfall and democratization is U-shaped in the short run, and this effect persists in the long run. Hence democratic transitions outlast the (transitory) rainfall shocks that started the democratization process. The U-shaped relationship between rainfall and democratization is consistent with rainfall affecting democratization through its (inverted-U-shaped) effect on agricultural output. This paper is part of the Economica 100 Series. Economica, the LSE "house journal" is now 100 years old. To commemorate this achievement, we are publishing 100 papers by former students, as well as current and former faculty. Antonio Ciccone is currently a professor at Mannheim University. Antonio graduated from the LSE in June 1990 with an M.Sc. Mathematical Economics and Econometrics. He won the Ely Devons Prize (shared with D. Laibson).

Quantifying the Effect of Change in Rainfall Dynamics on Agricultural Output in Nigeria

“…Specifically, rainfall shocks had a more pronounced negative effect on household consumption for assetpoor households compared to nonpoor households. Ciccone and Ismailov (2022) investigated the effect of rainfall on agricultural productivity and democratization in the most agriculturally dependent nations worldwide. The research utilized a Least Squares method with Heteroscedastic and Autocorrelation-Consistent (HAC) standard errors to account for arbitrary heteroscedasticity and serial correlation.…”