Rainfall as a driver of epidemic cholera: Comparative model assessments of the effect of intra-seasonal precipitation events

Lemaitre, Joseph C.; Pasetto, Damiano; Perez-Saez, Javier; Sciarra, Carla; Wamala, Joseph F.; Rinaldo, Andrea

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.11.013

Cited by 55 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 61 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In this study, we assessed the impact of five prospective oral cholera vaccination campaign scenarios as compared to a status quo scenario for a projected 10-year period in Haiti. Four independent modeling teams expanded on previously developed models of cholera transmission and vaccination interventions in Haiti 15,18,19,[21][22][23][24] to simulate the effects of mass vaccination campaigns of varying geographic scope, vaccination coverage, and rollout duration to assess the probability and time to elimination and the percentage of cases averted in each vaccination scenario. The aim of these analyses was to determine the feasibility of cholera elimination from Haiti in the status quo and through OCV use alone, and to inform ongoing policy discussions about the scope and rollout of potential OCV campaigns in Haiti in the near future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination

Lee

Chao

Lemaitre

et al. 2019

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Cholera was introduced into Haiti in 2010. Since, there have been over 820,000 reported cases and nearly 10,000 deaths. The year 2019 has seen the lowest reported number of cases since the epidemic began. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is safe and effective, but has generally not been seen as a primary tool for cholera elimination due to a limited period of protection and constrained supplies. Regionally, epidemic cholera is contained to the island of Hispaniola. Hence, Haiti may represent a unique opportunity to eliminate cholera by use of OCV. Methods We assess the probability of elimination and the potential health impact of OCV use in Haiti by leveraging simulations from four independent modeling teams. For a 10-year projection period, we compared the impact of five vaccination campaign scenarios, differing in geographic scope, vaccination coverage, and rollout duration to a status quo scenario without vaccination. Teams used common calibration data and assumptions for vaccine efficacy and vaccination scenarios, but all other model features and assumptions were determined independently. Findings A two-department OCV campaign proposed in Haiti's national plan for elimination had less than 50% probability of elimination across models, and only ambitious, nationwide campaigns had a high probability of reaching this goal. Despite their low probability of elimination, two-department campaigns averted a median of 13-58% of infections across models over the five years after the start of vaccination campaigns; a nationwide campaign implemented at the same coverage and rollout duration averted a median of 58-95% of infections across models. Interpretation Despite recent declines in cholera cases in Haiti, bold action is needed to promote elimination of cholera from the region. Large-scale cholera vaccination campaigns in Haiti offer the opportunity to synchronize nationwide immunity, providing near-term protection to the population while improvements to water and sanitation infrastructure create an environment favorable to long-term cholera elimination.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination

Lee

Chao

Lemaitre

et al. 2019

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Regarding rainfall and population density, in our study they did not in uence the annual incidence of cholera or the incidence one week following patronal festivities. However, studies have previously shown a signi cant association between seasonal rainfall and cholera 22 . Hurricane Matthew, which landed in Haiti in October 2016, was followed by increased number of reported cholera cases 23 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

Moise

Achille

Batumbo

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Introduction Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017. Materials/Methods An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates. Results In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR=0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798-0.6193), p=0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% one week following patronal festivities. Conclusion This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti 2017.

show abstract

“…Community outreach and educational activities in areas near cases were used to reinforce the management of cases. An estimation of the effectiveness of such case-area targeted interventions in the Center department between 2015 and 2017 has shown positive outcomes in order to mitigate and shorten cholera outbreaks 21 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

Moise

Achille

Batumbo

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Religious pilgrimages are among the anthropogenic factors known to be associated with the transmission of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera. This ecological study aimed to describe the evolution of cholera and assess the relationship between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities and the incidence of cholera in the three communes of Cabaret, Carrefour, and Croix-des-Bouquets in Haiti in 2017.Methods: An epidemiological curve was produced to illustrate the evolution of cholera at the communal level. Generalized linear models assuming a Poisson distribution were used to weight the annual cholera incidence of communal sections against variables such as the number of patronal festivities, population density and annual precipitation rates. The number of cases in the week of the festivity as well as one and two weeks later was weighted against patronal festivities and weekly precipitation rates.Results: In total, 3 633 suspected cholera cases were continuously reported in three communes in Haiti (Cabaret, Carrefour, Croix-des-bouquets) during the 52-epidemiological week period in 2017. After controlling for rainfall and population density, the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during the patron saint festivities was associated with a significant reduction in cholera incidence of 57.23% [PR=0.4277 (97.5% CI: 0.2798-0.6193), p=0.0000244]. The implementation of the strategy was associated with a reduction in cholera incidence of 25.41% one week following patronal festivities.Conclusion: This study showed a continuous presence of cholera in three communes in Haiti in 2017 and an association between the implementation of the ‘coup de poing’ strategy during patronal festivities and a reduction in cholera incidence. The findings imply that the multi-partner ‘coup de poing’ strategy may have contributed to the reduced cholera incidence following patron saint festivities and in Ouest department in Haiti in 2017.

show abstract

Rainfall as a driver of epidemic cholera: Comparative model assessments of the effect of intra-seasonal precipitation events

Cited by 55 publications

References 61 publications

Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination

Achieving coordinated national immunity and cholera elimination in Haiti through vaccination

Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

Impact of Patron Saint Festivities on Cholera in Three Communes in Haiti

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About