Rainfall Erosivity Projection in South‐East Australia Using the Improved Regional Climate Simulations

Abstract

Rainfall erosivity is one of the most dynamic factors in the soil erosion process. The increase in soil erosion caused by high rainfall erosivity, and the subsequent loss of soil nutrients, can lead to reduced food production and ecosystem services. This research program under the New South Wales (NSW) Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, assesses rainfall pattern change, rainfall erosivity and erosion risk across NSW under future climate conditions. Daily rainfall erosivity and erosion risk were modelled by Revised Soil Loss Universal Equation (RUSLE) approach and compared with that driven by observed rainfall data. Future rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk change were investigated from daily precipitation projection of the updated NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM1.5) for two future scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the historical (1986–2005) to far future (2060–2079) periods. The annual average rainfall erosivity is projected to increase about 8% under RCP 4.5 and further decrease 5% under RCP 8.5 in NSW due to the predicted temperature rises. More frequent heavy rainfall events are projected to occur during summer (December–January–February), and the rainfall from these extreme rainfall events is expected to account for 51% of the total annual rainfall in the far future. NARCliM‐derived results underestimate annual rainfall erosivity compared with observation‐derived erosivity. There are greater instability (root mean squared error [RMSE]: 803.2) and erosivity uncertainty (Bias: 16%~48%) in high rainfall zones. At a monthly scale, dry months (June–July–August) are becoming drier, while wet months (December–January–February) are becoming wetter and more erosive. 67% of NSW is predicted to experience increased rainfall erosivity under RCP4.5, whereas most of NSW will shift to drought and its consequent effects under the high‐end emission scenario (RCP 8.5). To address the dual challenges of excessive wetness in coastal and north‐east NSW and increasing aridity in Western NSW, it is necessary to develop climate change adaptation management strategies based on high‐risk areas and monthly or seasonal conditions. With the emerging launch of NARCliM2.0, we anticipate further improvements of these predictions will be achieved by more accurate models and data at higher spatial and temporal resolutions.