Rainfall extremes on the rise: Observations during 1951–2020 and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections for near- and late 21st century over Indian landmass

Saha, Upal; Sateesh, M.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127682

Cited by 29 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…And this type of 5‐day heavy precipitation leads to flash floods over the downstream situated cities in the Indus river basins and urban floods in western ghats and megacities like Mumbai and Pune. And the finding is consistent with those (Saha & Sateesh, 2022). The projected frequency of consecutive dry days (i.e., number of CDD more than 5‐day) was found to increase (600–800 events) in the middle to lower Ganga basins, Mahanadi, lower Indus basin, Brahmani, and Subarnarekha.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Moreover, the frequency of the heavy to very heavy precipitation at the 90th and 95th percentile, respectively, increased in the near to far future over the Brahmaputra and west‐flowing Tapti to Tadri river basins (Figure 11). Also, earlier research reported that increasing precipitation extremes are mainly caused by dynamic and local thermodynamics, which have more moist static energy (Saha & Sateesh, 2022). And this will lead to increases in low‐level convergence over eastern, central, and western flowing IRBs during the 21st century.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The projected extremes of GCMs data sets show high uncertainty in extreme precipitation and are associated with projected emission scenarios, regional climate variability, model parametrization schemes, internal models physics, etc (John et al., 2022; Latif, 2011). To reduce the above uncertainties, a different bias correction method is applied by researchers, in which mean‐based bias correction is found to be more suitable for climate scenarios (Jaiswal et al., 2022; Saha & Sateesh, 2022; Shrestha et al., 2020; Xu et al., 2021). To illustrate the hydroclimate extremes during near, mid, and far future, the study used the indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) used by the previous researcher (Chaubey et al., 2022; Sarkar & Maity, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Intensification of Extreme Rainfall in Indian River Basin: Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data

Chaubey,

Mall

2023

Earth's Future

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The changing frequency of extreme rain events in the past few decades over the Indian river basins (IRBs) contributed to floods and drought and resulted in economic losses and gross domestic product. In this study, we evaluated the performance of 12 Global Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6‐ experiment with India Meteorological Department observed data sets to reproduce the extreme rainfall events as well as project the changes in frequency and intensity of the hydroclimate extremes in future. We found that under low emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6), the frequency of extreme rainfall is going to increase over the western ghat and northeast IRBs, while an increase in heavy rainfall intensity (14.3%) noticed under SSP2‐4.5 in the upper Ganga and Indus basin. Also, approximately 4%–10% of the heavy rainfall is projected to increase over the western part of IRBs during the Near (2021–2040) and Mid (2041–2060) future. The study explored the new hotspot regions for future urban flooding due to increasing pattern of heavy rainfall in future. Moreover, the lower Ganga basin will experience agricultural drought in near future due to decreasing areal mean rainfall, which needs to be seen by policymakers for managing the excess (less) water. Also, India's northern, central, and western river basins may experience more extremes under high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenarios that indicate challenges to mitigation. The findings of this study highlight the importance of developing long‐term adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at reducing hydroclimate vulnerability. It emphasizes the need to implement measures that enhance resilience and minimize risks associated with hydroclimate extremes at the basin level.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Intensification of Extreme Rainfall in Indian River Basin: Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data

Chaubey,

Mall

2023

Earth's Future

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“…The occurrence of extreme precipitation events has become more frequent with global climate change, leading to significant human, economic, and societal losses (Liang, 2022). The study of extreme precipitation events has gained worldwide attention with a recent rise in frequency and intensity reported in various regions, including the United States (Gizaw et al, 2021), Japan (Hatsuzuka et al, 2021), Australia (Liu et al, 2020), India (Saha and Sateesh, 2022) and others. Several studies have shown that while extreme precipitation in China follows the global trend, it also exhibits regional and local differences .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and their correlation with atmospheric circulation

Yang

Huang

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Under the backdrop of climate change, the rising frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the middle and lower Yangtze River (MLYR) region are causing serious consequences and economic losses. To assess regional risk and understand the impact of atmospheric circulation on extreme precipitation, it's crucial to analyze the spatial and temporal fluctuations of these events, focusing on the time-frequency phase relationship. Using the observed precipitation data from 1979 to 2015, nine extreme precipitation indices were calculated and a trend analysis and wavelet coherence analysis were performed to evaluate their variation. The results show that: 1) an overall increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of precipitation in the MLYR, with significant rises in the wet daily precipitation and highest precipitation amount in 1-day period; 2) a higher likelihood of extreme precipitation events in the southeast of the MLYR, and an uneven spatial distribution; 3) the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), the South China Sea high (SCSH), and the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) all play a role in precipitation changes in the MLYR, with the WPSH having the most significant impact, followed by the SCSH, and the EAJ being weaker. The results deepen our understanding of the various characteristics and causes of extreme precipitation in the MLYR.

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“…The researches on extreme precipitation events have drawn worldwide attention. In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the United States (Gizaw et al, 2021), Japan (Hatsuzuka et al, 2021), Australia (Liu et al, 2020), India (Saha and Sateesh, 2022) and other regions. Several studies show that extreme precipitation in China is generally consistent with the global trend, but has obvious regional and local characteristics .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their linkage with atmospheric circulation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Yang

Huang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Under the background of climate change, increasing frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation causes serious impacts and huge losses to society and economy. It is significant to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of extreme precipitation for regional risk assessment. Nine extreme precipitation indices were calculated using the daily precipitation data of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) from 1979 to 2015. Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall trend test were carried out to determine the variation trend of the nine extreme precipitation indices. In addition, the potential influences of anomalous atmospheric circulation factors on extreme precipitation were explored using the wavelet coherence analysis technique. The results show that: (1) the overall wetting trend is detected in the MLYR, and the PRCPTOT and RX1day increased significantly; (2) Extreme precipitation decreased from southeast to northwest in the MLYR, indicating that extreme precipitation events are more prone to occur in the southeast of the MLYR; (3) the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), the South China Sea high (SCSH) and the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) all strongly impact on the changes of precipitation in the MLYR, among which the WPSH has the most significant impact, followed by the SCSH, and the EAJ is weaker.

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Rainfall extremes on the rise: Observations during 1951–2020 and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections for near- and late 21st century over Indian landmass

Cited by 29 publications

References 67 publications

Intensification of Extreme Rainfall in Indian River Basin: Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data

Intensification of Extreme Rainfall in Indian River Basin: Using Bias Corrected CMIP6 Climate Data

Changes of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and their correlation with atmospheric circulation

Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their linkage with atmospheric circulation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

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