Rainfall-intensity effect on landslide hazard assessment due to climate change in north-western Colombian Andes

Abstract

Landslides triggered by rainfall are one of the most frequent causes of disasters in tropical countries and mountainous terrains. Recent studies show an upsurge in landslide occurrence as an expected impact of human-induced climate change. This paper presents the analysis and implementation of two different physically-based models, SHALSTAB and TRIGRS, to evaluate the effect of rainfall on landslide hazard assessment in the north-western Colombian Andes. Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves were used in climate change scenarios for different return periods. According to the results, although higher rainfall intensities increase, landslide occurrence does not escalate in a direct or proportional relationship. Considering a steady infiltration process (SHALSTAB), the results show an expansion of d unstable areas, compared with a transient infiltration process (TRIGRS). A greater influence of rainfall duration instead of rainfall intensity was observed. The results highlight the need for studies that incorporate the scenarios of variability and climate change in the hazard assessment and land planning in the long term.

Adaptation strategies for people: mitigating climate-change-related risks in low-income and informal urban communities through co-production

“…A seasonal stream that runs down the steep hillside disappears under the self-built houses, and there is generally very poor management of water runoff and drainage. As a result, many homes are exposed to the risk of landslides, exacerbated by poor water management and increasingly frequent high-intensity rainfall events driven by climate change (Aristizábal Giraldo et al 2020).…”

Landslide Susceptibility Analysis on the Vicinity of Bogotá-Villavicencio Road (Eastern Cordillera of the Colombian Andes)

“…Finally, it should be mentioned that those methods for determining rainfall thresholds and, where appropriate, establishing early warning systems, exist throughout the whole country [54] or in different departments such as Bolívar, Antioquia and Caldas to the northwest [50,[55][56][57][58] or in Bogotá [59]. Regarding precipitation, the influence of deep convective systems [60] and the impact of climate change on the generation of landslides and other risks [61] have also been evaluated in these previous works.…”

Evaluating the IMERG precipitation satellite product to derive intensity-duration-frequency curves in Colombia

“…Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves summarize the extreme rainfall characteristics for short time durations at a point in space [1]. They are a fundamental input for hydrological design as they provide data for estimating flows in small ungauged basins and for constructing design storms in medium and large-size watersheds [2]; they are also a basis for flood risk assessments in mountainous areas [3] and for studying rainfall triggering landslides [4,5], among others. They are calculated from rainfall data using either manual, semi-automatic or automatic procedures that extract information from pluviograph strips or digital records [6].…”