Rainfall Prediction in Blora Regency Using Mamdani's Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

In the case study of weather prediction, there are several tests that have been carried out by several figures using the fuzzy method, such as the Tsukamoto fuzzy, Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Time Series, and Sugeno. And each method has its own advantages and disadvantages. For example, the Tsukamoto fuzzy has a weakness, this method does not follow the rules strictly, the composition of the rules where the output is always crisp even though the input is fuzzy, ANFIS has the disadvantage of requiring a large amount of data. which is used as a reference for calculating data patterns and the number of intervals when calculating data patterns and Sugeno has the disadvantage of having less stable accuracy results even though some tests have been able to get fairly accurate results. In research on the implementation of the Mamdani fuzzy inference system method using the climatological dataset of Blora Regency to predict rainfall, it can be concluded as follows: (1) The fuzzy logic of the Mamdani method can be used to predict the level of rainfall in the city of Blora by taking into account the factors that affect the weather, including temperature, wind speed, humidity, duration of irradiation and rainfall. (2) Fuzzy logic for prediction with uncertain input values is able to produce crisp output because fuzzy logic has tolerance for inaccurate data. (3) The results of the accuracy of calculations using the Mamdani fuzzy inference system method to predict rainfall in Blora Regency are 66%.

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