Rainfall Seasons Analysis as a Guiding Tool to Small Holder Farmers in The Face of Climate Change in Midlands in Zimbabwe

Abstract

A rigorous analysis of trends in rainfall season of an area over a lengthy period of time can be effectively used as a tool to guide small holder farmers in their activities. Climate change adaptation is important to ensure sustainability and survival in rainfed crop farming. In this study two districts (Chirumhanzu and Zvishavane) in the Midlands Province of Zimbabwe were selected and rainfall data for the areas was provided by Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department. Rainfall characteristics that include onset times, cessation times, length of seasons, total amount of rainfall, number of rainy days, dry spell and risk of water logging were analysed to provide farmers with an indicative picture of possibilities in their respective areas in a bid to reduce risks of crop failure due to uncertainties brought about by climate change and variability. Time series analysis method together with risk analysis were the statistical methods employed to understand better the risk and measures that can be taken by farmers. For Chirumhanzu it was concluded there is a 41% risk of replanting if farmers plant with the first rains received. However, over the period this risk seems to be decreasing. Farmers are encouraged to stagger the planting to minimise risk. Risk analysis showed that for Zvishavane the mean number of rainy days for Zvishavane is 34 with a possibility of 45 days in good seasons and 23 days in poor seasons The tool guides meant for farmers require proper packaging and systematic channels to promote buy-in by the end users of the information.

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